Although India attracted the red boundaries around its sensitive sectors – agriculture, milk and genetically modified (GM) food – the US continue to seek significant concessions. It signaled a potential 6% relief from 6% from 16% reciprocal increase in tariffs announced on April 2, which will remain suspended until 9 July.
However, three people who are familiar with this matter have stated that even if partial relief is awarded, the basic 10% tariff and another 10% obligation – from the original 16% – could still be stored if India does not allow more access to these editorial sectors.
This uncertainty is followed on Friday by a statement by the Minister of Commercial Minister Piyusha Goyal that India is ready to sign the contract “only if in the interest of the country”.
Limited tangible profits
Indian officials are afraid that despite several changes in policy aimed at signaling openness, tangible profits from Washington remain limited. “India has made several gestures, starting with the Union’s budget to improve the trade climate. However, feedback from the US side suggests that their focus remains largely on export pushing,” said the first three people.
India also reconsider the timing and framing of waiting political measures that are assumed to be sensitive to American technological interests, including a draft digital competition Act, a comprehensive framework of electronic trading and the rules for assigning new income for non -resident enterprises reported on June 30.
Recalibrations are considered in accordance with the wider objectives of trade agreements and show India’s obligation to regulatory transparency and facilitate investment.
The new Delhi aims to complete the agreement before the deadline of the reciprocal tariffs of July 9 July. The US wants India to reduce duties to its agricultural and dairy goods, facilitate the entrance barriers for shrimp and eliminated non -tariff curbs for milk exports.
The US remains the largest Indian export market. In FY24, India exported US goods worth $ 77.52 billion – 18% of total exports ($ 433 billion) – while imports were $ 42.2 billion, resulting in a $ 35.32 billion trade surplus. In FY25, exports to the US increased by $ 11.6% to $ 86.51 billion, while imports increased by $ 7.4% to $ 45.33 billion, expanding the surplus to $ 41.18 billion, showing data about the Ministry of Commerce.
It moves to relieve tension
In a calibrated move to alleviate the tension of trade, India announced a bike of cuts in the trade union budget introduced 1 February – than the formal start of a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) through a joint statement 13 February.
The average customs obligation was reduced from 11.65% to 10.66%, with cuts spread across technology, cars, industrial inputs and imports associated with space.
The obligations on motorcycles were reduced from 50% to 40% (for engines below 1,600 cc) and 30% (over 1600 cc). Parts of mobile phones and LCD TVs also recorded a reduction, while import taxes from the satellite installation device – including spare parts – were removed. Lithium-ion batteries have been reclassified as basic automatic components, which caused them to be eligible for incentives.
Obligations for the essence of synthetic aroma were reduced from 100% to 20%, fish hydrolyzate from 15% to 5%, and several waste and scrap items noted their 5% obligation to eliminate – US exports to India developed $ 2.5 billion.
Bourbon Whiskey has been reported among politically sensitive concessions that its import obligation had decreased from 150% to 100%, just before visiting the US Prime Minister in February. Harley-Davidson motorcycles also benefited from the decrease in tariffs-50% to 30%-in the Union budget.
Ethernet switches in the “Carrier-Grade (Other)” category-the main US export segment of $ 653 million in FY24-povinity in half from 20% to 10%.
India also downloaded a 6% compensatory fee or “Google tax” to a foreign digital company, a key problem for American companies. It revised the rules of the safe port to offer more tax incentives to manufacturers of EV and batteries. Lithium-ion batteries for EV and hybrids have been reclassified to qualify for other incentives.
Not for the cost of critical sectors
“In the Indian approach to business negotiations with the US, there is a noticeable shift compared to earlier wheels. Although it can be part of a wider global location strategy, India should not become at the cost of critical India,”
“Now it seems that negotiators are making more effort to conclude an agreement – unlike earlier times when the attitude was firm and clearer: if a business partner disagreed with the main interests, India was willing to leave,” the official said.
“Despite the frequent criticism of the Trumps of Indian tariff policy, they suggest a reduction in the duty to move towards the US exports,” said Ajay Srivastava, former Indian business service and co -founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) initiative. “India performs calculated movements to alleviate trade in the middle of a tense global environment, especially in sectors such as technology, car, electronics and waste recycling,” he said.
The next step aimed at supporting bilateral trade came in March, when the General Directorate of Foreign Trade (DGFT) extended the period of the export obligation for nuts within the preliminary authorization system from 180 to 18 months – established in accordance with most other products.
It is expected to benefit from the US, which in 2024 represented 66.8% of Indian imports of $ 1.07 billion. “With a longer time framework for processing and re-development of walnuts, Indian traders can plan imports more efficiently,” Srivastava said.
Despite these gestures, Indian officials claim to be careful about rapid monitoring of policies that could endanger regulatory freedom. One such measure is the policy of electronic trading, which attracted strong interest from Amazon and Walmart Flipkart. “Policy, originally due in 2023, is likely to be postponed,” said the above third party. “Given the changing global scenario, it’s not the right time.”
Cleaning the deck for entry from us Satcom Major Starlink is also considered measures to cheat the American leadership. This step signals the willingness of India to adapt key American business interests, especially in strategic sectors such as telecommunications and digital infrastructure.
Unlikely to benefit
Trade experts believe that these concessions are modest and significantly decreased by the US business deficit – a key goal for Trump’s customs unit.
“President Trump expects much more profits from India. In his opinion, they are smaller – a pipe, not concessions,” said Biswajit Dhar, economist and expert on the Social Development Council. “Its priority is to reduce business deficit, and this can only occur if the US significantly increases exports to India.”
Washington did not show any signs of tariff release to Indian metal exports. As Mint first announced on April 3, India decided to dialogue over retaliation. According to a report by another Mint, the first BTA trance reached Trump’s table after being cleaned by US sales representative Jamieson Greer.
Optimism, however, disappeared in the middle of the stamps that the Trump 2.0 era tariffs of 50% on Indian steel and aluminum may remain in force during this agreement.
“The current 50% American tariff on Indian steel is likely to remain if BTA explicitly does not include exception-like what the US has offered the US. Without such a concession, Indian steel exports to the US are likely to be stagnant. India, which may be in India, which may be in India, which may be in India, which may be in India, which may be in India, which may be in India, which may be secure, which may be in India, which may be secured. Wonderchef, kitchen company.
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