Decoded: Is Trump Helping Putin Reshape Europe's Security Order? What the American-Russian negotiations could mean for NATO

US President Donald Trump’s push to end Russia’s war against Ukraine is increasingly moving beyond a ceasefire, with Washington exploring a broader security arrangement involving Moscow and European states.

The proposed framework could address some of Russia’s long-term demands, including limiting NATO expansion and its military presence in Eastern Europe, raising questions about the future of European security and the alliance’s role.

According to sources cited by Axios, the Trump administration is now open to discussing security concerns that Moscow has repeatedly raised over the years.

These issues were also central to Russian draft security proposals submitted to the US and NATO in 2021, which called for limiting the alliance’s eastward expansion and withdrawing part of its military presence in Eastern Europe.

The renewed discussions raised concerns that Washington’s efforts to negotiate an end to the war could give Russian President Vladimir Putin more leverage over security measures in Europe.

What does Trump propose to Russia?

The US proposal reportedly seeks to address two interrelated aspects of the conflict: an end to the fighting in Ukraine and the creation of a broader security framework between Russia and Europe.

Two sources cited by Axios said Washington wants Moscow to come up with proposals that take into account Russian security concerns while offering guarantees that would help European countries feel confident about their future security.

The goal, according to the report, is to develop an arrangement that addresses Moscow’s concerns without leaving European nations vulnerable to another potential Russian attack.

The request was made during two days of US-sponsored talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11.

Why is NATO expansion and military presence central to the talks?

Russia has consistently opposed NATO’s eastward expansion, saying the alliance’s growing presence near its borders threatens its security.

In December 2021, Moscow presented draft security agreements to Washington and NATO, demanding guarantees against further NATO expansion and limiting the deployment of military forces and weapons in Eastern Europe.

These demands became a major point of contention in the months leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The latest US diplomatic initiative appears to be bringing some of these long-standing Russian concerns back to the table.

However, any discussion about limiting NATO’s military presence or future expansion could create tensions with European allies, particularly countries in Eastern Europe that see the alliance as a critical security guarantee against Russian aggression.

What is the proposed European security framework?

According to The Washington Post, the proposed framework draws on the now-defunct NATO-Russia Council, which previously provided a platform for dialogue between Moscow and the military alliance.

Such an arrangement could provide Russia with a formal channel to raise its security concerns and engage with European countries on broader security issues.

However, the proposal could be controversial. European officials fear that Moscow’s greater role in discussions about the continent’s security could allow the Kremlin to influence decisions that traditionally fall within the sovereign rights of individual European nations and NATO members.

Read also | The war that Putin wanted to keep away is coming home to Russia

The central question is whether a broader security arrangement can address Russia’s concerns without jeopardizing NATO’s independence or the security interests of its European members.

What happens next in the US-led peace effort?

Trump’s special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are expected to meet Putin on November 12 in Moscow to discuss the proposed framework and review progress made during the Abu Dhabi talks.

According to Axios, Washington is also considering involving European representatives in future rounds of discussions.

US envoys are then expected to travel to Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is in Ireland for talks with European leaders.

Read also | Putin’s top aide drops bombshell as Ukraine-Russia truce talks take new turn

The latest diplomatic effort follows the first U.S.-brokered direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials since February.

Kushner described the discussions as difficult but productive and indicated that Washington wanted Moscow to offer more than a list of demands.

“We told the Russians that they have their desires and their concerns, but they have to provide different de-escalations and also different proposals if they want Europe to be able to accept those proposals in a good sense,” he said.

Can Trump secure a deal without unsettling Europe?

Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism about reaching an agreement to end the war.

Earlier, he said he met with Putin’s envoy at the White House and hinted that a “big, beautiful deal” could be within reach.

His optimism was also confirmed by Kushner, who said that American officials held productive and substantive discussions with Ukrainian officials and NATO representatives on November 5 in Brussels.

But negotiations to end the war continue to be complicated by the competing security demands of Russia, Ukraine and European nations.

While Moscow wants to limit NATO’s military reach, Ukraine and its European partners are seeking permanent security guarantees to prevent another Russian offensive.