Climate change increased tropical cyclone Arnab damage by 33%: Study

A drone view shows vehicles stranded along the flooded National Highway 16 (NH-16) near Ichchapuram following flash floods caused by Cyclone ‘Arnab’ in Srikakulam district, Andhra Pradesh. | Photo credit: PTI

Climate change increased the damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Arnab, which hit eastern India on October 28, by 33%, leading to tens of millions of dollars more in direct economic losses compared to the pre-industrial climate, according to a new study.

He added that the storm brought intense rain, peak 1-minute sustained winds of up to 202 kilometers per hour and severe infrastructure damage in Andhra Pradesh.

The study was carried out by researchers at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and published on Thursday (November 5, 2026).

For their analysis, the researchers used the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) to simulate Cyclone Arnab under current conditions (plus 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels) versus a counterfactual climate without human-induced warming.

“Climate change increased Cyclone Arnab’s maximum wind speed by about 5% and intensified its rainfall by 11% at landfall,” the study said.

It also revealed that direct damage to physical property in India was estimated to be 33% higher than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate, with roughly 25% of total economic damage attributed directly to climate change.

Dr. Nathan Sparks, a researcher at the Department of Physics, Imperial College London, said in a statement: “These findings are a powerful reminder of the price of inaction. The costs of climate change are not hypothetical future projections – they are affecting coastal communities in East India today.”

Published – 05 Nov 2026 16:03 IST