2026 US midterms: Can Democrats flip four Senate seats held by Republicans? 11 key races to watch, from Texas to Ohio

US Semester 2026: Democrats enter the final stretch of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections with an ambitious goal: flipping at least four Republican-held Senate seats while retaining all of their current seats to regain control of the upper chamber.

Several contests across the country tightened, with Democratic candidates mounting competitive challenges in traditionally Republican states including Texas, Kansas and Iowa.

But Republicans continue to hold the edge in campaign ad spending, spending $560 million compared to Democrats’ $521 million in 11 key races, according to AdImpact data cited by CNN.

The difference in spending widens to $81 million when Georgia and North Carolina are excluded, where Republicans have significantly scaled back their advertising efforts.

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating averages 34% in a CNN poll, while voters’ concerns about the economy, the Iran war and corruption have become key issues shaping the election contest.

CNN’s ranking of the 11 Senate battlegrounds draws on opinion polls, campaign spending, fundraising, interviews with strategists and the political environment in each state. This is not a prediction of individual race winners or overall Senate control.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper has the lead

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican candidate Michael Whatley by 14 percentage points among likely voters, according to the final High Point University/YouGov poll.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown challenges Republican incumbent

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed after JD Vance became vice president, 50% to 45% in a CNN polling average. Still, Republicans outspent Democrats by about $141 million to $102 million in October.

Texas

Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office in 32 years. While the polls remain competitive, recent New York Times/Siena and CNN polls have Talarico in the lead.

Maine and Alaska

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 46% in a CNN poll. Collins is the only Republican incumbent seeking re-election in the state, which was won by Kamala Harris in 2024.

Alaska also emerges as a hotly contested race. The New York Times/Siena poll has Democrat Mary Peltola at 48% and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 46%. Ranked voting could delay the final result by several weeks.

Kansas and Iowa

A New York Times/Siena Kansas poll showed Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%. Democratic groups also outspent Republicans in October, while Hamilton entered the final stages of the campaign with more cash on hand.

Iowa remains competitive, with Democrat Josh Turek at 46% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45% in the CNN poll average. Trump won the state by 13 percentage points in 2024, making him a significant challenge for Democrats.

Michigan and New Hampshire

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 45% in Michigan, according to an average of CNN polls.

In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads former Republican Sen. John Sununu by 12 percentage points in a University of New Hampshire poll.

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South Carolina and Georgia

South Carolina’s Senate race has tightened, with a New York Times/Siena poll showing a statistical tie between Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews.

Georgia has become a less promising Republican pick-up opportunity.

Other states, including Nebraska, Mississippi and Minnesota, remained on the radar during the campaign but did not become fully competitive Senate races.

The results in these 11 races will be closely watched as Democrats try to overcome the Republican advantage in the Senate and reshape the balance of power in Washington.