Israeli elections: Netanyahu’s power at stake? Explanation of Gadi Eisenkot’s challenge, who will win and possible voting results | Today’s news
Will Benjamin Netanyahu retain the prime minister’s seat or lose it under pressure from the war in Iran and Gaza? All eyes are on Israel’s parliamentary elections on Tuesday (October 27), in which some 7.3 million eligible voters will decide Netanyahu’s fate and his grip on power.
Israel’s election, held for the first time since 2022, is seeing a close contest between Netanyahu’s Likud party and its right-wing allies and his top challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, who heads the Yashar party (the Jewish-led opposition alliance).
As many as 80,000 expatriate Israelis are expected to return to the polls in Tuesday’s election, according to estimates by one group helping to organize citizens living outside the country, CNBC reported.
Israel has about 7.3 million eligible voters, according to the Washington-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems, she added.
The vote for all 120 Knesset seats is the first since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that shook the country and plunged the Middle East into turmoil. Netanyahu was Israel’s longest serving leader with 19 years in office.
Here’s everything you need to know about Israel’s 2026 elections:
Which major parties are fighting in the Israeli elections?
Two main blocs are fighting to form the government in the country.
The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.
These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas—both conservative religious parties—and Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Becalel Smotrich.
The main opposition coalition consists of four Jewish-led opposition movements:
- Yashar Party, led by former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot
- Democrats led by former Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Golan
- The Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former finance minister Avigdor Lieberman
- Alliance Together, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett and joined by Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.
When will exit polls, election results be announced?
The winner of Israel’s parliamentary election is expected to be known within hours of polls closing, but it could take days or even weeks to be clear, Reuters reported.
Voting begins at 7:00 a.m. (05:00 GMT) and ends at 10:00 p.m. (2000 GMT), when Israeli television channels broadcast exit polls giving the first indications of the result. After that, the election results will start coming in.
A clear picture can emerge quickly, but if no party or group of parties has a clear parliamentary majority, it can take much longer.
The final count is expected by October 30, and official election results are formally released a week after the election, on November 4.
What happens after the results are published?
After the final count, President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders on who they want as prime minister, then taps the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.
This candidate has up to 42 days to form a government.
No party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties, and negotiations to form a government often take weeks.
Every seat in the Knesset counts, and small parties can have a big impact when they become kingmakers.
If the nominee fails, others may try.
Israeli Elections: What Are the Possible Results?
Here are eight possible outcomes:
1. Netanyahu forms another government
A recent poll suggested the opposition bloc was expected to win 52 seats compared to 50 for Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance. Palestinian-led parties could therefore determine who rules, Al Jazeera reported.
Despite trailing slightly in opinion polls, Netanyahu could remain prime minister if his Likud party gains enough support from existing allies or new coalition partners.
Netanyahu’s traditional partners include the Jewish party of far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and the religious Zionism of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism – which have previously joined his coalition several times but also left, most recently in 2025 – could also play an important role.
2. Majority government led by the opposition
At the end of September, four opposition parties – the Yashar Party, the Democrats, the Yisrael Beytenu Party and the Together Alliance – signed a non-aggression pact agreeing to cooperate in an effort to oust Netanyahu.
The bloc has not announced who will lead the future coalition government, but former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, is seen as its most likely candidate for prime minister.
Another potential candidate is former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who heads the Together alliance with Yair Lapid.
3. A coalition involving Ra’am
The Joint List and Ra’am — two Arab-led parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20 percent of the population — are estimated to win about 13 seats, Al Jazeera reported.
Mansour Abbas, the leader of Ra’am, has reportedly signaled a willingness to join the opposition bloc if it needs more seats. Ra’am, also known as United Arab List, made history in 2021 by joining Bennett’s coalition, becoming the first Arab-led party to participate in Israel’s governing coalition.
However, most opposition leaders, including Eisenkot, ruled out such an alliance.
4. Minority government
If the coalition falls short of 61 seats (one more than half of the parliamentary seats), it could seek external parliamentary support from other parties without including them in the government, such as Palestinian-led parties.
The joint list, which includes the Hadash, Ta’al and Balad factions, said it could provide a so-called safety net to the anti-Netanyahu coalition by agreeing not to oppose it in a confidence vote even if the alliance does not enter government.
In return, she said she would demand certain conditions, including a path to Palestinian statehood and the fight against organized crime. But any such arrangement would leave the ruling coalition vulnerable to defections and disputes over major policies, Al Jazeera reported.
5. National unity government
According to the Israeli parliament, the government of national unity is “a government based on a broad coalition, which also includes representatives of competing parliamentary groups”.
This is usually formed in times of national emergencies such as war, natural disasters or economic crisis. In May 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz formed a unity government after three inconclusive elections. This deal collapsed within a year.
However, in 2023, following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel, Gantz and members of his party joined Netanyahu’s coalition – considered an emergency unity government – despite Gantz’s earlier bitter opposition to it.
6. Power sharing arrangement.
There is also the possibility that the two political leaders could agree to alternate as prime minister as part of a power-sharing arrangement.
7. Another prime minister from the same political camp
In Israel, the Prime Minister is elected by the members of the Knesset after the elections.
If talks to form a government stall, the parties could agree to support another Knesset member from Netanyahu’s political camp or from the opposition bloc, someone more acceptable to future partners.
8. No Agreement
If no leader can garner sufficient support in the Knesset, Israel could face another period of political turmoil and head for new elections.
The country has held five elections between 2019 and 2022 as rival blocs have repeatedly tried to form stable governments.
What happens if there is no clear winner?
If no government emerges, another election is called, with the current cabinet remaining as the caretaker government.
For the first time ever, experts believe that the country may have a minority government directly after the election.
According to Reuters, Netanyahu may once again depend on far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to form a government.
Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot have a clear path to power. If neither of them can form a governing coalition in the 120-member parliament, Netanyahu could stay on as president until another election is held next year.
who will win — What history reveals
Netanyahu, 77, is an unrivaled master of political survival: since 2009, he has only briefly managed to wrest his opponents from the prime ministership. It took four inconclusive elections in two years to get out. He returned 18 months later.
