Israel Elections 2026: What happens if no party can secure a 61-seat majority in the Knesset? Explanation of the main scenarios | Today’s news
Israel’s parliamentary elections in 2026 could plunge the country into another political stalemate if no political bloc manages to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing opposition from several rival political parties, the outcome of the election may depend on both post-election alliances and the number of seats won by each party.
The general election will be held on October 27, exit polls are expected that night, preliminary results will be released on October 28 and official results are due on November 4.
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, meaning a party or coalition needs at least 61 lawmakers to win a majority.
However, the country’s system of proportional representation makes it difficult for an independent party to win enough seats. Consequently, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), coalition negotiations are central to the formation of any Israeli government.
If the election produces another fragmented parliament, several options could emerge, from a new coalition led by Netanyahu to an opposition government, a national unity arrangement or another election.
How does Israel’s 61-seat majority system work?
Israel follows a nationwide system of proportional representation, in which voters vote for political parties rather than individual candidates. The 120 seats in the Knesset are allocated according to the share of votes received by parties that exceed the electoral threshold of 3.25%.
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After the results are announced, the Israeli president consults representatives of the elected parties before entrusting lawmakers with the responsibility of forming a government. The designated candidate must negotiate with other parties and secure sufficient parliamentary support to form a coalition.
The largest party does not automatically win the premiership. What matters is whether the candidate can form a coalition with the support of at least 61 lawmakers, according to the Israel Democracy Institute.
What happens if no party gets 61 seats? Explanation of the main scenarios
1. Netanyahu forms another coalition
Netanyahu could remain prime minister if his Likud party and its traditional right-wing and religious allies combine to secure enough seats.
Potential coalition partners include Itamara Ben-Gvira’s Otzma Yehudit, Becalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism.
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These parties have previously supported Netanyahu-led governments. Their combined strength and willingness to continue the alliance could decide whether he gets another chance to form an administration.
2. Opposition parties unite to form a government
Another possibility is an opposition coalition including parties led by Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan.
Although the parties differ on several policy issues, their opposition to Netanyahu could provide common ground for negotiations.
But they would need to secure the support of other lawmakers if their total number of seats falls short of 61. Disagreements on leadership, security policy and religious issues could also complicate negotiations.
3. Arab parties emerge as kings
Arab-led political parties could become decisive if neither Netanyahu’s camp nor the opposition wins a parliamentary majority.
The United Arab List (Ra’am), led by Mansour Abbas, and the Joint List could potentially provide the additional parliamentary support needed to form a government.
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Ra’am previously participated in Naftali Bennett’s 2021 coalition, which marked a significant development in Israeli politics.
However, cooperation with Arab-led parties remains controversial among several Jewish opposition leaders. According to Al Jazeera, this could limit the possibility of a formal coalition and complicate negotiations.
4. A minority government is formed
The government could be formed even without the formal inclusion of all supporting parties in its cabinet.
Under this arrangement, smaller parties could provide external support by supporting motions of confidence and important legislation without joining the governing coalition.
Arab-led parties could potentially support an opposition administration through such an arrangement, although disagreements over policy could make it difficult to maintain parliamentary stability.
5. The rival parties agree to a government of national unity
If neither political camp is able to form a government independently, the rival parties could consider joining hands to form an administration of national unity.
Israel has seen such an arrangement before. In 2020, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agreed to share power through a rotating presidency after repeated electoral back-and-forths.
A similar deal could include parties from both the right and the left, although disagreements over judicial reform, security policy and religious exemptions could be problematic.
6. The rotating presidency of the government is negotiated
Political leaders could also agree to share the prime minister’s office through a rotating arrangement.
Israel has already experimented with this model. In 2021, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid agreed to share the premiership, with Bennett serving first before Lapid took over in 2022.
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A similar deal could help rival leaders overcome differences over who should head the coalition if they secure enough parliamentary support.
7. Israel is headed for another election
If coalition talks fail, Israel could face another parliamentary election.
The country’s recent political history includes five elections between 2019 and 2022, reflecting ongoing difficulties in establishing stable governments.
If no candidate succeeds in forming a coalition within the constitutionally prescribed process, the Knesset could eventually be dissolved, triggering another election. Netanyahu could continue to head the interim government until a successor government is formed.
Why are the 2026 Israeli elections significant?
The election is taking place against the backdrop of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, subsequent military operations and ongoing regional security challenges.
Netanyahu’s handling of national security, responsibility for the October 7 attacks, judicial reforms, exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews and the economy are among the main issues shaping the political debate.
