(Bloomberg Standing)-the zamfin decreases through the US, while the monthly sums has issued a real-time crime index, which shows violent crime at roughly predandemic level, while property crime is much lower. It seems that the decrease in violent crime has accelerated during the winter. (1)
The crime has also recently decreased in the largest city in the country. However, a recent decline comes after years of increase and crime remains much more common in New York than before the pandemic. Crime index numbers in real time are only available by the state, but New York City represents 94% of the state population on these statistics, so they are close enough to approximation.
Property crime numbers show a similar division, but because of simplicity I will stick to violent crime. Why is there much more in New York than before the pandemic? The most sincere answer is the shoulders: scientists are sometimes able to determine whether a particular policy or event has increased or reduced crime, but it is terribly difficult to find – and as a guy who has line charts rather than sophisticated causal inference methods. Yet lines offer more support for some theories than others, lending ammunition to critics of deposit and Eric Adams reform, but not those who blame “Ferguson Effect” or Alvin Bragg.
One important detail is that while the violent crime is in New York, because there is no longer the strongest crimes before the pandemic. If this year it has dropped 28.7% in murder and non -life killing, the murder rate will be the lowest since 1944.
Although it increased up in 2020 and 2021, the Míra Murders in New York was among the lowest American cities for a large American city (murder includes murder and steady killing). Along with its slight degree of transport, which makes New York City one of the safest places in the US, which is a surprising result that I have repeatedly wrapped in the press and video. However, the risk in New York, however, the victims of violent crime, especially robbery or aggravating attack, is not lower by lower American standards, and as already mentioned, it is much higher than before the pandemic.
The deteriorated dominance of the attack of these statistics makes the comparison between cities a little ify. Murders are barely announced, attacks often do, plus police departments have some freedom to report them as aggravating – defined FBI as “one person’s unlawful attack to cause serious or impaired physical injury” – or simple. To make things more complicated, NYPD counts on crime attacks in its own crime statistics that are less numerous than aggravating attacks that the ministry eventually reports to the state and the FBI and that I had to estimate the above graph. The rape report is if something less consistent over time and across jurisdictions. Overall, I am much more confident in murder statistics that show that New York City is on a safe side for a big city than in a violent crime that shows that it is somewhat on the dangerous side.
Yet, a larger number of aggravating attacks and robbery means that you are more likely to experience it than murder, and a comparison of the trends of short -term and medium -term crime should not be much affected by the message of irregularities. Here is a comparison of the trends of violent crime since the end of 2019 in New York and Minneapolis.
I chose Minneapolis, because it is a place where George Floyd was murdered in May 2020 by a policeman and became an epicenter of the protest movement and called for the subsequent police. Now there is a large amount of serious research connecting the public about killing the police with an increase in the crime when the police become a recovery in the face of protests and political will-TEVs. Ferguson effect. One can certainly do the case to explain what happened in Minneapolis from 2020 to 2022. But in New York, who also had huge protests in 2020, the violent crime did not start until 2021 and really took off after the city voters elected a former police officer.
Well, I don’t think this means New York’s Crime Wave Was Eric Adams’ Fault, Although It Is Strike How Little Success He Has Had in Reining it in. Murder Did Go Up Sharply in New York City in 2020 and Began Falling in 2022 and the City’s Status as An Early Epicenter of the Covid-19 Pandemic Surely Played and the role in Suppressing Other Violent Crime in 2020 and 2021 Becouse New Yorkers Went Out Les and Visitors Stayed Away. Thus, a wave of crime was perhaps a delayed response to the causes that preceded Adams. One of these reasons could be simply a disproportionate impact of pandemic on daily routines and economic conditions in New York. For example, at the end of 2010, the unemployment rate of the city was almost identical to the nation. Since March 2020 it was significantly higher.
Another elected clerk whose name comes a lot in connection with crime problems in New York is the district prosecutor Manhattan Alvin Bragg, a reformist progressive, whose successful prosecution of President Donald Trump has made him a national goal. Indeed, the crime is on Manhattan because Bragg joined the office at the beginning of 2022, but in the other four neighborhoods there are more, which together represent 80% of the population in New York, much more in three of them. Obviously he is not a culprit.
Bragg, however, is not the only progressive DA in New York, and I do not think it is a crazy suspicion that some aspects of criminal judiciary reforms have been adopted in the last decade in New York, the city council and the state lawmakers could increase the level of crime.
The highest profile such a reform in New York, signed by law by Governor Andrew Cuom in April 2019, will end the cash bail for all except the most serious crimes. There is a convincing evidence that the first perpetrator’s deposit is counterproductive because the prison time increases the likelihood that they will again commit crimes. After the 2019 bail reform, however, the judges in New York limited the freedom to repetition of the prison that they thought they were likely to commit more crimes. In contrast, the 2017 deposit reform in New Jersey was accompanied by a system of evaluation of the prestrial risks aimed at maintaining high -risk perpetrators behind bars while reducing overall imprisonment. County Crime Statistics, available by 2023, show significantly different trajectories in the nearby Jurisdictions of New York and New Jersey.
These graphs do nothing. There may be many other factors. However, research on cooperation for justice to John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York found that while recurrence is among the first perpetrators in New York from the reform of deposit to repeated perpetrators. And data from the criminal judiciary in New York show both the number of people about preliminary release in the city, who are re -framed to make crimes significantly higher in 2024.
So what explains the decline in violent crime in the city in the last few months? Perhaps several years of reform of the reform in Albany are beginning to have an impact. Perhaps Jessica Tisch, who was appointed by the police commissioner in November, almost exactly when the violent crime began to decline, really does a much better job than its predecessors. Another possible factor that I did not mention-head because I do not have data to map it, but also because the available evidence suggests that immigrants, including those who illegally here, are less likely to commit crimes than Americans on Rhodci.
Most likely it is some combination of these and other forces that will never be satisfactorily dispersed. In any case, hopefully it will keep it.
More of Bloomberg’s opinion:
(1) This chart represents a change in the number of crimes in jurisdictions 407, which provide timely monthly data; The American population has risen by about 3%since 2020, so the rate of crime has probably dropped even more. Also, all the statistics I quote here represent crimes reported to the police. This is not a perfect measure, because not all crimes are reported by the police, but the national survey of the victimization of the offense of the Office of Justice Statistics suggests that the percentage that has been growing since 2020.
This column reflects the author’s personal views and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Justin Fox is a publicist Bloomberg, which includes business, economics and other topics involving graphs. He is the former editorial director of Harvard Business Review, the author of the “myth of the rational market”.
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(Tagstotranslate) violent crime
