Outlook Policy
In the upcoming month, several main central banks are ready to announce the decision on monetary policy, and many face a delicate balance – causing persistent inflation pressures in navigation in uncertainty of US customs policies.
The US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to be generally maintained by interest rates. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider a reduction in rates to stimulate growth under stable inflation.
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The US federal reserve system is expected to maintain a stable level because it weighs the potential economic gradient from tariffs against inflation risks. The Bank of England, which alleviated rates in May to engage in growth and softening inflation, can now maintain stable, but could continue to release by August. Japan’s bank is likely to pause in June to assess the uncertainty related to customs tariffs, but may begin to raise the rate later, as inflationary pressures are formed.
Ceasefire
After the replacement of steep mutual tariffs, the US and China agreed on a 90 -day pause in their customs war, including reduced tariffs in this period. The ceasefire, reached after high -level conversations in Switzerland, represents an important de escalation after US tariffs on Chinese imports reached a peak of 145% and the Chinese tariffs on US goods reached 125%.
Currently, American tariffs are about 30%on Chinese products, while Chinese tariffs on American goods cost near 10%. Before the agreement, China recorded a sharp decline in exports to the US in April, along with a remarkable increase in consignments to ASEAN countries, suggesting that US tariffs pass.
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While the conditions of any final agreement remain uncertain, this temporary ceasefire reduced global tension and brokers reduced the likelihood of recession in the US.
Brexit
Five years after the formally abandonment of the European Union, the United Kingdom and the EU, they revealed their first major post-git agreement and signaled strategic resetting in their complicated relationship.
The agreement, which was unveiled at the London Summit led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, applies to trade, defense, energy, migration and youth mobility in order to improve cooperation and alleviate tensions. The business relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU has undergone a significant change from Brexit. While the EU remains a key business partner, which represents approximately 41% of the UK exports and 51% of imports in 2024, the United Kingdom diversified its business portfolio, with countries outside the EU have now received 59% of their exports.
However, the United Kingdom exports to EU and outside the EU have fallen sharply from Brexit, emphasizing the urgency of providing business agreements with the EU and other partners such as India.
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However, since Brexit, British exports to the EU and outside the EU have fallen sharply and pushed the need to conclude trade agreements with the EU and other countries such as India.
Bond Route
The global bond market is facing a sharp sale, driven by a wave of fiscal fears and loss of confidence in long -term government debt.
Moody Downgrade of American credit outlook and renewed concerns over rising deficits-discarded tax plans Donald Trump-called a wide reassessment of risk. Investors not only leave US state treasury, but also long -term bonds in large economies such as Japan and Germany.
Revenues to 30 -year -old American bonds have recently increased around 5%, while Japanese and German revenues have also jumped. Structural shifts, such as reduced demand of Japanese insurance companies and a looser fiscal policy in Europe, combine pressure.
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Investors now prefer shorter bonds and consider them safer in uncertain times. Meanwhile, developing markets such as India and China resist trend, thanks to revenue slipping due to domestic stability and stricter capital control.
Lift
The Chinese giant Catl debuted on the striking debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange and this year won $ 4.6 billion in the largest global list. The shares jumped by 16% of their $ 263 HK List 263, the first day, emphasized by the strong demand of investors for the best EV battery manufacturer in the world, which supplies the capital car manufacturers such as Tesla, BMW and Volkswagen.
Catl, which holds almost 38% of the global EV battery market, plans to use revenues to speed up its expansion in Europe. However, already listed in Shenzhen, Catl got involved in escalation of tensions in the US and China. The Pentagon described Catl as a Chinese military company, and American legislators pushed Wall Street Banks to avoid the list, and lead Catl to completely exclude us on the mainland.
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This step means moving from the era where Chinese giants as Alibaba were involved in the debut on Wall Street. The Catl Hong Kong extract reflects the changing financial environment, while land companies are increasingly changing to Hong Kong for capital in the middle of the growing US regulatory control.
(Tagstotranslate) Global Economy (T) Central Bank Policy (T) USA China Trade War (T) Interest Responds (T) Indian Reserve Bank
