Why Quebec separatism is back in the spotlight after PQ election victory and what it means for Mark Carney

Canada’s long-standing Quebec issue is back in the spotlight as separatist politics in the francophone province regains momentum, raising fresh questions about the future of Canada’s federation and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ability to handle competing demands for greater provincial autonomy.

The Parti Québécois (PQ), which defends the sovereignty of Quebec, seeks to return to power after more than a decade.

A victory for the PQ could push the issue of independence back to the center of Canadian politics, especially if party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon follows through on his promise to hold another referendum on Quebec’s future.

The issue comes at a particularly sensitive time for Canada. Alberta is also debating the possibility of a secession referendum, which could leave Ottawa facing competing calls for national unity from opposite ends of the country.

Further complicating the debate is US President Donald Trump’s repeated remarks that Canada should be the “51st state” of the United States, adding to external pressure.

Why does Quebec want to secede from Canada?

Quebec occupies a unique position within Canada. It is the country’s only majority French-speaking province and has a distinct political, cultural and historical identity rooted in its French heritage.

The province was part of New France before Britain took control of the territory in 1763. Over the centuries, Quebec developed its own institutions, traditions and language protections, distinguishing itself from predominantly English-speaking Canada.

For Quebec nationalists, this distinct identity is central to the argument for greater political autonomy.

The sovereignty movement argues that Quebec should have complete control over areas such as laws, the economy, immigration and international relations, rather than sharing constitutional authority with Ottawa.

The Parti Québécois has historically been the main political instrument of this movement.

Quebec has already voted twice on independence

Quebec held two referendums on sovereignty.

The first, in 1980, resulted in a decisive rejection of independence.

The second, in 1995, was dramatically closer. The “No” party won with just 50.58% of the vote, while 49.42% supported sovereignty.

The razor-thin result remains one of the defining moments of modern Canadian political history.

Why is separatism back in the spotlight now?

The revival of the Parti Québécois brought the question of independence back into the mainstream of political debate.

Plamondon has vowed to hold another referendum on Quebec sovereignty if his party returns to power, according to the BBC.

But he said the vote would not take place until after Trump leaves office.

But a PQ victory would not automatically mean that Quebec is on the verge of leaving Canada.

The poll suggests support for independence remains a minority position, around 30%, according to CNN.

What does this mean for Mark Carney?

A renewed push for Quebec independence could pose a major challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Plamondon has made it clear he is prepared to challenge the federal government on issues he sees as falling under provincial jurisdiction, including immigration.

That could mean repeated clashes with Ottawa over the division of powers, even before the sovereignty issue formally goes to a referendum.

Does the referendum mean Quebec will leave Canada?

Even if Quebec eventually held another referendum and the independence party won, it would not automatically lead to Quebec becoming an independent country.

The vote would be the start of a much larger constitutional and political process involving negotiations between Quebec and the federal government, including issues of borders, property, debt, citizenship, aboriginal rights and the separation of powers.

The 1995 referendum showed how close this issue can become. Three decades later, however, the political scene is different.