Southwest Monsoon ends with 12% deficit
Bhopal, Sep 11 (ANI): Commuters are braving heavy rains in Bhopal on Friday. (Photo by ANI) | Photo credit: ANI
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rainfall, 12.6% below the normal of 868.6 mm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. At 87% of the long period average (LPA), this is the lowest rainfall recorded during the monsoon season since 2015, which was slightly drier at 758.2 mm.
The east and northeast region, which recorded 1,017.1 mm of rainfall, had its driest monsoon since 1901, or since the IMD began keeping systematic records.
The muted rainfall was in line with forecasts by global meteorological agencies, including the IMD, which predicted one of the strongest El Ninos in recent history. The IMD had predicted muted monsoon rainfall since April and overall the reality matched the forecast. For example, on 13 April, it predicted rain from June to September at 92% of the LPA with an error window of 5%. The May 29 update reduced that to 90% with a 4% error window. The final IMD estimate is within this range.
The June rains have subsided
However, his regional and monthly forecasts were much further ahead. June, which had only 65% of normal precipitation, was much drier than the forecast of 92%. July’s rainfall, which was expected to be below 94%, ended up being 1% higher, thanks to rains in central India, which received 33% more rain than normal. August came in at 84% LPA, in line with the “below 94%” forecast. September at 92.4% finished slightly above the “below 91%” forecast.
IMD Director General M. Mohapatra told reporters on Wednesday that the IMD’s forecasts correspond to conditions in “many regions, except some parts of northwest and adjoining central India”.
Downward trend in the East
The largest deviations from normal rainfall were in eastern and northeastern India (25.6% below normal). Mr Mohapatra said there was a “significant trend” of decreasing rainfall in the region “in recent years”. Rainfall in the southern peninsula was 24.3% below normal and at 542 mm it was the fourth lowest monsoon rainfall recorded in the region since 1901. Northwest India finished 5.9% below normal and central India was 2.6% below normal, the IMD said.
Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya subdivisions were rain deficient every month from June to September. Nationally, 17 out of 36 sub-divisions (covering 42% of the country’s area) recorded deficient rainfall, 18 were normal and one had excess rain. Of the 741 districts assessed, 282 were deficient and 34 were “highly deficient”.
A warmer and drier October is expected
The southwest monsoon this year is in the process of withdrawing and is likely to leave completely during the first weeks of October, Mr. Mohapatra said. The country will then experience the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon.
As El Nino continues to gain strength, the country’s rainfall in October is likely to be below the 85% LPA of around 75.4mm. Most regions are expected to receive below normal rains except parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India and isolated pockets in the east where normal to above normal rains may occur.
“Parts of Punjab, Haryana and northern states may see good rainfall as western disturbances are likely to increase in El Nino years. We saw good rains in these areas last week, which means soil moisture is high, which will help the upcoming winter crop,” added Mr. Mohapatra.
Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most of the country. The exceptions are parts of Northeast where normal to below normal lows are likely and pockets of central and northwest India where normal highs are expected.
Published – 30 Sep 2026 22:23 IST