India to have more elderly people by end of this century as fertility declines, age structure shifts: Moody’s

Moody’s said population growth had long been a drag on economic growth and creditworthiness, but falling birthrates are now changing that picture. | Photo credit: GettyImages/iStockphoto

India is likely to have a much older population later this century as the country’s age structure begins to shift and the birth rate falls “below replacement,” Moody’s Ratings said on Tuesday (Sep 29, 2026).

Moody’s said population growth had long been a drag on economic growth and creditworthiness, but falling birthrates are now changing that picture.

Fewer workers will limit production capacity, while fewer households and consumers will weaken demand. As a result, countries will have to rely more on productivity to sustain growth.

Moody’s said the global fertility rate has fallen from 4.9 children per woman in 1950 to about 2.2 today, just slightly above the fertility rate of 2.1.

“What makes this episode particularly significant is that many of the world’s largest economies are aging at the same time. In fact, more than 70% of the world’s population now lives in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement,” Moody’s said in a report on global demography.

It said birth rates in much of Latin America are now comparable to those in Europe and Japan, while several East Asian countries have some of the lowest birth rates on record.

Japan has the richest population structure, with almost 30% of the population over 65 and about 11% under 15.

South Korea is close behind, while China is rapidly moving in the same direction. Emerging markets, including Brazil, India, Thailand and Turkey, are following suit.

“Although India’s population remains relatively young, the birth rate has already fallen below replacement and the country’s age structure is beginning to shift, paving the way for a much older population later this century,” Moody’s said.

Declining fertility is ultimately reshaping age structures and population growth, he said. The countries experiencing the steepest declines in birth rates today will also age the fastest in the coming decades.

Published – 30 Sep 2026 11:26 IST