Is Trump’s 100% Tariff Threat on India ‘Leverage to Push Trade Deal’? Expert weighs | Today’s news

The threat of 100% US tariffs on countries buying Russian oil is unlikely to push Russia into a peace deal, but the measure could give Washington leverage in trade negotiations with India and put pressure on broader Indo-US relations, according to Rajoshri Roy, a researcher at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.

“There is a lot of speculation that this might give the US leverage over India to push through a trade deal. A 100% tariff on India on any trade with the US makes trade with the United States unsustainable for India,” Roy said.

“It could be a factor in terms of using that as leverage to push through a trade deal and maybe seek more concessions from India, which hasn’t really been the case in the past,” he added.

US President Donald Trump has signed into law a sweeping bilateral sanctions bill that gives his administration sweeping secondary sanctions powers, including the power to impose up to 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil and gas.

Read also | Why is India’s energy security now caught in Trump’s ‘coercive geopolitics’?

India is unlikely to limit imports of Russian oil

Roy said it was unlikely that India would significantly reduce its purchases of Russian oil, given the importance of those supplies to the country’s energy security.

“As for India getting its oil supplies from Russia, that is unlikely to happen. If you stop buying Russian oil, which covers 50% of our oil imports, where are we going to get that 50% from?” Roy said.

“A world without West Asian oil, without Russian oil, you’re looking at price explosions and shortages.”

100% tariffs could affect Indo-US relations

Roy said imposing 100% tariffs on India could have implications for the future of Indo-US relations if New Delhi is punished specifically for continuing to buy Russian oil.

“It could impact the future of Indo-US relations if 100% tariffs come in simply because India is buying oil from Russia, which is in India’s national interest at the moment,” Roy said.

At the same time, Roy said India and the US have previously found ways to manage differences on sanctions and tariffs, leaving room for a possible waiver or negotiated settlement.

“Ultimately, the India-US relationship is mutually beneficial. There are no two ways about it. India has drawn certain red lines for itself and said that if you force us to change our foreign policy, we will be forced to look at our own national interests,” Roy said.

“In the past, India and the US have found a modus vivendi on the issue of tariffs. On India buying arms from Russia, there was a CAATSA overhang, but India got an exemption. India also got an exemption earlier this year on buying oil from Russia.”

Roy added: “He might sign the bill, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to impose these tariffs on India. We have to see how that plays out. We can expect both India and the US to find common ground on this.”

US sanctions are unlikely to change Russia’s course

Roy said a broader sanctions campaign was unlikely to force Russia to change its policy toward Ukraine. He argued that Moscow had shown a willingness to absorb economic pressure rather than change its stance.

“Economic sanctions are a form of economic coercion, and history has shown that sanctions usually don’t work. Russia is a much bigger power, and after studying Russia, it’s clear that the Russians will not bow to US pressure, especially pressure from a country that Russia considers an equal,” Roy said.

“Sanctions are unlikely to bring about a change in Russian policy. It is also seemingly an existential problem for Russia. Geopolitics in relation to sanctions is, after all, intractable for the Russians.”

Russia continues to resist the pressure of sanctions

Roy said Russia has continued to resist extensive economic restrictions over the past five years.

“Russia is still the most sanctioned country in the world, but the Russians seem to be doing what they have been doing for the last five years without backing down. The economy has collapsed and it has bounced back. There are still problems like inflation, but people seem to be rallying around the flag,” he said.

“The Russians are willing to make a sacrifice at this point, even if it means economic pain. You don’t see anti-war protests in Russia today.”

Uranium exemption fuels debate over US sanctions against Russia

Roy also pointed to what he described as inconsistency in how different countries handle purchases of Russian resources.

“International relations, great power diplomacy, all of that is often shaped by double standards or hypocrisy. You have a legitimate interest in buying uranium from Russia, but the same yardstick doesn’t apply when it comes to other countries buying natural resources from Russia,” Roy said.

“A person should be judged by the same yardstick. Unfortunately, this does not always happen in international relations.”