Why 2026 US Midterm Elections Matter More Than Ever For Trump Amid Iran War

The 2026 US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, are likely to determine control of Congress and could directly affect the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency amid the ongoing war with Iran.

Held in the middle of a president’s four-year term, it is a national election in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate are contested, along with many state and local offices.

The presidency itself is not on the list. But the election determines which party controls Congress, making it critical to the president’s ability to advance his legislative agenda during the remaining two years of his term.

Why are the US midterms important to Trump?

Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in Congress during the midterm elections.

Republicans currently have narrow majorities in both houses of Congress.

A shift in both chambers can therefore change the balance of power in Washington.

If Republicans retain control of both chambers, Trump would have more support from Congress to advance his legislative priorities during the second half of his term.

But if Democrats win control of either chamber, Trump could face greater scrutiny from Congress and more difficulty advancing his legislative agenda.

This comes as Trump faces challenges on several fronts. Recent decisions by the US Supreme Court have also affected aspects of his administration’s policies.

Losing the position in Congress could deal a severe blow to his push for tariffs and other agenda items, and will affect Trump’s ability to pass legislation, approve appointments and advance his policy priorities.

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Surveys overshadowed by war in Iran

The 2026 midterm comes as the Trump administration faces questions about the U.S. military campaign against Iran.

The US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, with Tehran saying thousands of people had been killed. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes across the region, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies.

Are Trump’s ratings under pressure?

The polls come as Trump’s popularity has faced pressure.

A recent CNN/SSRS poll found that 64% of Americans said the US had not won the Iran war, while 36% said it had. Nearly two-thirds of respondents also said Trump is not doing enough to end the conflict.

“What midterms usually are is a reflection of the president’s popularity,” foreign policy expert Trevor Thrall told DW.

Addressing world leaders at the United Nations on Tuesday, Trump highlighted US military action and argued that his administration had responded to threats directly rather than relying solely on diplomacy.

“While others talked, I acted. While others talked peace, I made peace,” Trump said.