Asia threatened by unrest like El Niño, war threatening food supplies | Today’s news
According to consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, severe weather fluctuations will intensify food security risks in Asia and potentially trigger civil unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines.
The warning comes as the war in Iran has already disrupted supplies of fuel and fertilizer, both key agricultural inputs. Weather extremes associated with a strong El Niño are now further threatening crops across the region.
Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of palm oil, is suffering from a spate of hard-to-control forest fires that have disrupted harvests. Monsoon rains, which top rice exporter India relies on, are 15% below normal and Thailand’s sugar harvest will decline.
The twin threats of war and weather are driving up food inflation — an established trigger of unrest, the risk consultancy said in a report published on Thursday.
More than half of the countries that are at high or very high risk in Verisk Maplecroft’s food security index are also in the top two categories of its predictive civil unrest index. These include India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia, where protests have already erupted in recent weeks.
“The evidence suggests that if pressures on food prices and availability intensify and governments respond ineffectively, unrest and political instability may emerge in these risky markets,” the report said.
For conflict-affected nations such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, a food shock would increase the risk of humanitarian disaster, she added. Thailand, which is highly dependent on imported energy and fertilizer, is also under increasing pressure from indebted farmers ahead of the next planting season.
“The impacts are becoming more visible,” Verisk Maplecroft said. “In many key agricultural regions, planting and fertilization decisions were made during the peak of disruption, meaning negative impacts may now be locked in even if the geopolitical situation improves in the coming months.”
This article was generated from an automated news agency source without text modification.
