Did White House insiders make ₹5.22 crore on US-Iran truce bets? Teleprompter assistant's ₹87 lakh bet raises alarm

Betting on ongoing geopolitical events has attracted global attention since the United States attacked Iran earlier this year. This time, however, the White House is concerned because anonymous bettors have won a huge prize ₹5.22 million ($600,000) bets on a cease-fire agreement between the US and Iran.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, the White House, federal agencies and congressional investigators are concerned about mounting evidence that predictive markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are being used to make money off non-public government information.

White House lawyers are investigating anonymous bets on the truce

Concerns were first raised earlier in 2026 after anonymous accounts on Polymarket placed five-figure bets worth several million rupees that President Trump and Iran would conclude an initial ceasefire by the end of April.

Senior officials reportedly feared that the bettor might have drawn on insider knowledge to guarantee an easy win.

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Staff in the White House counsel’s office reportedly scoured the building for aides, trying to figure out which of the hundreds of employees might be behind the bets. The effort eventually stalled. Polymarket allows users to register anonymously, making it nearly impossible for lawyers to track down individual bettors, even though the returns themselves can be tracked on the blockchain, the WSJ report said.

Rather than naming names, the Trump administration issued a blanket caution. A memo sent out in late March told employees that using nonpublic information for personal financial gain is strictly prohibited.

The warning came too late to stop the payout. Three anonymous Polymarket accounts collected more than ₹$5.22 million ($600,000) after correctly predicting the April ceasefire announcement, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.

Trump’s teleprompter stakes spark CFTC probe

The episode that has drawn the most scrutiny involves Trump’s teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez. The White House confirmed this week that Perez is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for over-betting ₹87 lakhs ($100,000), allegedly placed using early access to presidential speeches.

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Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Trump administration knew nothing about the bets and pointed to existing ethics rules that prevent employees from engaging in such behavior. She added that Trump was furious at the suggestion that anyone in his administration could trade on privileged information.

Perez, who had worked as Donald Trump’s technical assistant since 2016, has since been placed on unpaid leave.

Pick bets on the US vice president extend into the 2024 campaign

The suspicious betting pattern is not new. Two previously undisclosed bets made during the 2024 presidential campaign were reportedly based on early tips that Trump would select JD Vance as his running mate, according to people familiar with the incidents.

One such account came from Mark Moran, a former investment banker who says he learned of Vance’s selection over dinner at a cocktail bar in Georgetown, courtesy of Jake Denton, then a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation. Acting on the cutting edge, Moran placed modest ₹78,300 ($900) bet on the Polymarket app about a month before the pick became official.

“I do Vance,” Moran wrote to Denton in a message he later shared before urging friends to follow. “I got a kid at the Heritage Foundation who tipped me off,” he told a co-worker, “so Vance went for it.”

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The business earned him approx ₹52,200 ($600) in cryptocurrency, records show. Moran later launched his own long-term independent bid for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Mark Warner of Virginia.

Kalshi has since accused him of violating platform rules by betting on a race in which he himself was a candidate.

The congresswoman denies tipping the influencer about the candidate’s choice

On a separate account, U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida is placing another bet in the middle. During a lunch at a members-only club in Tampa in the summer of 2024, Luna reportedly told associates that she already knew Vance would be chosen. She is said to have shared the information with Conservative influencer Rogan O’Handley, known online as “DC Draino”, who then bet Polymarket.

Luna flatly denied the claim. “I am honored that the WSJ thinks I am telepathic, but unfortunately I am not,” she said in a statement, adding that she “will continue to fight against insider trading.”

For his part, O’Handley denied any suggestion of wrongdoing. He added that he was not previously aware of any federal investigation into the matter. The CFTC is said to be looking into the allegations, although officials caution that the investigation itself does not indicate wrongdoing.

Political betting volumes are growing rapidly ahead of the November elections

The scope of activity increased sharply. Political betting on Polymarket roughly doubled to just over ₹It reached $34.8 trillion ($4 billion) in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2025, according to the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective.

Election-related betting alone amounts to more than ₹2,827 crore ($325 million) of this total.

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Kalshi says she took a firmer line when she blocked dozens of campaign staffers from betting on races involving their own candidates. “Our teams are working 24/7 to monitor and flag any anomalous trading patterns, and we investigate each one,” Elisabeth Diana, a company spokeswoman, told the WSJ.

A spokesperson for Polymarket told the WSJ that the platform actively monitors insider trading and has referred more than 100 cases to law enforcement.

Regulators and Congress are stepping up scrutiny of prediction markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the primary regulator overseeing prediction markets, has requested information from both Kalshi and Polymarket regarding bets linked to political and military developments. The agency faces a structural challenge: Insider trading statutes were never designed for platforms where users can bet on outcomes ranging from the president’s choice of tie to the composition of the national ticket.

In the Senate, lawmakers approved a resolution in April that prohibits members and their staff, many of whom routinely handle sensitive material, from using Kalshi or Polymarket.

Lobbying and hospitality are blurring the lines in Washington

Prediction markets have also become woven into the capital’s social calendar. Kalshi hosted a reception in June at a beer garden near Nationals Park to mark a congressional baseball game, with company representatives mingling with congressional staffers at an open bar that ran up a bill exceeding ₹87,000 ($1,000) within the first hour.

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Among the guests was Collin Sabine, legislative director for Rep. Pat Harrigan of North Carolina, who earlier this year co-sponsored legislation to ban members of Congress, their spouses and family members from owning individual stocks.

Also present was Tony Hanagan, a former aide to the Senate Republican leadership who registered as a lobbyist for Kalshi days before the event and now serves as the company’s head of congressional affairs. Senate rules bar him from lobbying members of that chamber for a year, though his disclosures confirm he will deal with House members and staff.