With 10 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT can only miss the pure run rate route and RCB have almost qualified while SRH would have to do really badly from here to miss the playoffs. RR have a more than even chance, while PBKS have about the same chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, albeit jointly. CSK’s chances have been beaten after Friday’s loss and KKR and DC have slim chances indeed. There are 1,024 possible combinations of results left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race. Let’s look at the probabilities:
- Despite Saturday’s loss, GT are assured of a top-four finish in points (although they could be tied with up to four other teams), and their chances of finishing first or second, individually or collectively, remain fairly high at 80.5%.
- RCB have a 99.6% chance of finishing in the top four on points and an 86.3% chance of being in the top two
- SRH’s chance of finishing in the top four on points is 82% and they have a 47.3% chance of finishing in the top two
- RR’s chances of finishing in the top four in points have improved to 59.1% and they have a 26.6% chance of taking one of the top two spots
- PBKS has a 50.2% chance of finishing in the top four in points, but only a 14.1% chance of finishing in the top two
- CSK’s chances of being in the top four on points are now 34.8% and they have just a 19.5% chance of finishing in the top two
- Saturday’s win improved KKR’s chances of making the last four, but only to 10% and they can no longer match the top two positions
- DC’s playoff hopes are a paltry 6.1%. Like KKR, they are no longer in contention for the top two slots
How we arrive at probabilities: There are 1,024 possible combinations of results left, with 10 matches to go. For each team, we looked at how many of them finished in the top four, either individually or in a tie. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team in the top two either individually or together. For example, GT will finish in the top four on points in all 1,024 possible combinations of match results, meaning a 100% chance of being in the top four purely on points, but since some of them involve a tie, they are not yet guaranteed to qualify.
