With 12 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT and RCB almost qualified while SRH would have to do really badly from now on to avoid the playoffs. ČSK and RR have a roughly equal chance of finishing among the top four, even if together. PBKS’ chances plummeted after Thursday’s loss. KKR and DC have really slim chances. There are 4,096 possible combinations of results left, so none of the eight remaining in the race are certain yet. Let’s look at the probabilities:
- GT has a 99.9% chance of finishing in the top four in points (including possible ties) and their chance of finishing first or second, individually or collectively, is an impressive 79.1%
- RCB have a 99.3% chance of finishing in the top four on points and an 81.9% chance of being in the top two
- SRH’s chance of finishing in the top four on points is 79.7% and they have a 36% chance of finishing in the top two
- Thursday’s loss to MI means that PBKS’s chances of finishing in the top four on points have taken a serious beating, dropping to 43.8% and they now have just an 8.3% chance of finishing in the top two.
- With 56.3%, CSK have a better chance of making the top four, but only a 22.2% chance of finishing in the top two
- RR have a slightly higher 57% chance of finishing in the top four, but only a 17.9% chance of capturing one of the top two slots
- KKR now have just a 3.7% chance of making the last four and can’t even match them for the top two positions
- DC’s playoff hopes are a paltry 4.2%. At best, they can finish tied for fourth with two to three other teams
How we arrive at probabilities: There are 4,096 possible combinations of results left, with 12 matches remaining. For each team, we looked at how many of them finished in the top four, either individually or in a tie. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team in the top two either individually or together. For example, DC will finish in the top four in just 172 possible combinations of match results, which represents just a 4.2% chance of finishing in the top four, even collectively, not individually.
