Kagiso Rabada of Gujarat Titans and his teammates With 14 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of playoff contention and DC are barely hanging in there. GT almost qualified while RCB and SRH would have to do really badly from now on to miss the playoffs. PBKS also remains in a good position to get there. CSK and RR have a better chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, albeit jointly. KKR have slim chances. There are 16,384 possible combinations of results left, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining in the race.
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Why Suryakumar Yadav Will Lose India T20I Captaincy: Everything You Need To KnowLet’s look at the probabilities:
- Tuesday’s win all but ensured that GT will finish in the top four in points with a 99.6% chance of that happening, and their chances of finishing first or second, individually or collectively, are an impressive 84.5%.
- RCB have an 88.1% chance of finishing in the top four on points (including possible ties in one or more of those spots) and a 59% chance of being in the top two.
- Tuesday’s loss means SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four on points have dropped to 76.8% and they have just a 35.5% chance of finishing in the top two.
- PBKS’s chance of finishing in the top four in points is 64.5% and they only have a 28.8% chance of finishing in the top two.
- At 53.9%, CSK have a better chance of making the top four, but only a 22% chance of finishing in the top two.
- RR have a slightly lower 53.8% chance of finishing in the top four and only an 18.2% chance of capturing one of the top two slots.
- KKR have a paltry 12.8% chance of making it to the last four, but even now they can finish in the top two on points, albeit a slim 3.6% chance.
- DC kept their playoff hopes alive, but only narrowly, with a 3.2% chance. At best, they can finish third with a tie anywhere between two to three other teams.
How we arrive at probabilities: There are 16,384 possible combinations of results left, 14 matches left. For each team, we looked at how many of them finished in the top four, either individually or in a tie. We also looked at how many combinations placed each team in the top two either individually or together. For example, GT will finish in the top four in 16,324 possible combinations of match results, giving it a 99.6% chance of being in the top four, individually or collectively.
