At the heart of the new system are two forecasting models whose predictions are “blended” to increase accuracy. File | Photo credit: The Hindu
Ahead of this year’s monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday unveiled a new forecasting system that will, for the first time, generate “block” forecasts of the arrival of the monsoon across 15 states and covering about half of India’s roughly 7,200 blocks.
Historically, such estimates are available at best at the state or county level. For example, the monsoon is known to arrive in Mumbai around June 10 and Delhi on June 29. However, the inherent variation of the monsoon is such that even within the same district, several blocks and villages within them will be without rain, despite the monsoon having officially “arrived” at the district boundaries.
IMD’s long-term goal was to provide hyper-local forecasts to address this shortfall so that farmers could accurately time sowing.
At the heart of the new system are two forecasting models whose predictions are “blended” to increase accuracy. From the onset date of the monsoon in Kerala, it can use AI-based analysis, the IMD with nearly a century of detailed meteorological data and global weather models to provide the monsoon itinerary with unprecedented granularity, Science Minister Jitendra Singh said at a press conference.
Forecasts for 4 weeks
This was a system specially developed at the request of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare, whose existing advisory system is built to provide forecasts in a roughly weekly format. Developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, a research institute of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the fusion framework is designed to connect directly to the ministry’s pipeline to produce probabilistic forecasts for the next four weeks.
Currently, this system can be used to provide forecasts for 3,196 blocks in 15 states and one Union Territory. According to the press statement, two test runs have already been successfully completed. “These states are part of the monsoon core zone, which are areas that are largely irrigated and are most sensitive to the dynamics of the southwest monsoon,” M. Ravichandran, secretary, MES, said at a press briefing. “Of course, we’re looking to expand this across India in the future, but that requires more observational data.”
Mr. Ravichandran told The Hindu that the system would face a formidable test this year as both the IMD and global models expected “below normal” rainfall in light of the developing El Nino – often causing weak monsoon rains in India – from the month of July.
On Tuesday, the IMD also launched a monsoon forecast model specifically for Uttar Pradesh with a resolution of 1 km (indicating granularity) valid for 10 days. This was, Mr. Singh said, because of the very extensive coverage of automatic weather stations in the state, which made it possible to “downscale a weather model called Mithuna (which works at a resolution of 12.5 km) to 1 km. “We are encouraging other states to share their data with us, which will enable their forecasts to be generated at a higher resolution,” added Mr. Ravichandran.
Published – 12 May 2026 22:46 IST
