NOAA Releases Outlook for 2026 US Hurricane Season; predicts a ‘subnormal season’ due to El Niño | Today’s news
US forecasters on Thursday (local time) released their outlook for the upcoming 2026 hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) new seasonal outlook predicts a “below-normal” season for 2026, mainly due to El Niño.
USA Today reported that such predictions have proven tricky this year. NOAA expects the season to produce eight to 14 named tropical storms, including three to six hurricanes. One to three of these hurricanes could strengthen into major storms.
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Citing weather records from 1991 to 2020, the report says a typical year sees an average of about 14 storms, seven of which become hurricanes. The first storm of 2026 will be named Arthur.
Uncertainty regarding hurricane development
NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement: “While the El Nino effect in the Atlantic basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty as to how each season will play out,” adding: “That’s why it’s imperative to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to create a very bad season.”
Graham went on to say: “Don’t let a ‘subpar’ forecast change your preparations.”
Experts recommend ignoring the forecasts
People living in hurricane-prone areas may be surprised to hear that experts have advised them not to rely too heavily on seasonal forecasts in 2026 and instead prepare for a potentially dangerous hurricane season regardless.
Earlier forecasts from other organizations generally pointed to a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season, although experts also warned of a high degree of uncertainty. However, even a less active hurricane season can prove deadly.
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While experts suggest that El Niño is expected to dampen some hurricane activity, that’s no guarantee of a mild season.
Despite a strong El Niño in 2023, the Atlantic basin experienced the fourth-busiest hurricane season on record, according to NOAA’s postseason analysis. The season produced 20 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Hurricane Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach on Florida’s west coast, causing widespread flooding.
The impact of El Niño on the hurricane season
Historically, El Niño has tended to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin while increasing storm activity in the Pacific due to its influence on global wind patterns.
As El Niño strengthens, weaker trade winds and rising ocean temperatures near and east of Hawaii are expected, making the islands more likely to be hit by hurricanes, according to Malte Stuecker, director of the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.
According to NOAA, the opposite may be true in the Atlantic, where the shift in winds created by El Niño activity can bring wind shear that creates a hostile environment for hurricanes to form and strengthen. The strongest influence is in the area of hurricane development in the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
Even a less busy hurricane season can have impacts, especially when the Atlantic is in an active cycle or ocean temperatures are particularly high.
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Below-average Atlantic hurricane season likely in 2026
In early April, Colorado State University forecasters said the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to fall below historical averages due to an El Niño pattern that sends winds across the southern US that could rip into tropical storms, Reuters reported.
In a statement, the university said, “While the intensity of the likely El Niño is uncertain, the CSU team anticipates that a mild to strong El Niño is most likely at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and generally continues through November 30, with peak activity usually occurring between August and October.
Key things
- El Niño is expected to dampen hurricane activity, but unpredictability remains a key factor.
- Preparedness is essential regardless of seasonal forecasts; one storm can have serious consequences.
- Historical data shows that even sub-par seasons can lead to fatalities.
