US intelligence assessments suggest that Iran’s estimated timetable for developing a nuclear weapon has remained unchanged despite months of conflict and targeted strikes targeting its nuclear infrastructure, a Reuters report said, citing several sources familiar with the classified assessments.
The findings suggest that Tehran would still need roughly the same amount of time as previously estimated to produce a nuclear weapon, raising questions about the overall effectiveness of recent military actions in slowing its nuclear program.
The timeline of the interruption is up to a year
Intelligence agencies previously estimated that under certain conditions, Iran could potentially produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon within three to six months.
However, following a series of US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, this timeline was revised to around nine months to a year.
“After the US strikes in June that hit the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, US intelligence estimates pushed that timeline back to about nine months to a year,” the sources told Reuters.
Current assessments indicate that there have been no further significant delays since then.
Monitored impact of military strikes
The unchanged timeline comes despite an ongoing military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, launched under US President Donald Trump as part of a broader effort to prevent the development of nuclear weapons.
Officials admit that while key facilities have been damaged, Iran’s main stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU) remains a critical concern.
“The assessment of Tehran’s nuclear program remains largely unchanged after two months of war, which US President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb,” the report said.
Stockpiles of enriched uranium remain a key concern
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that Iran has enough HEU to potentially produce several nuclear weapons if further enriched.
However, the exact location of a significant portion of this material remains uncertain following the suspension of controls.
“About half is believed to have been stored in an underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center, but this could not be confirmed since inspections were suspended,” the report said.
The goal of the US is to prevent nuclear weapons
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated Washington’s position that Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
“US intelligence agencies concluded before June’s 12-day war that Iran could probably produce enough uranium for a weapon and produce a bomb in three to six months,” the sources said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also argued that strikes on Iran’s air defenses make the weapons less likely to be deployed quickly.
Iran denies nuclear weapons ambitions
Iran continues to deny that it is pursuing nuclear weapons and says its program is for civilian purposes. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Tehran halted an organized weapons program in 2003, although concerns remain about residual capabilities.
The unchanged timeline highlights continued uncertainty over whether military strikes alone can significantly delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions without targeting its remaining stockpiles of enriched uranium.
Read also | UAE Says Defense Systems Intercepted Missile, Drone Attacks From Iran
