As global risks threaten growth and fuel inflation, early signs of heavy pre-monsoon rainfall could provide a domestic cushion by boosting agricultural output and easing food prices.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted above-normal rainfall in May and the early arrival of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a development that could lift rural demand, boost agricultural output and give a boost to economic growth.
“Our forecast system shows that the conditions for the arrival of the southwest monsoon become favorable between May 15 and 20,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, adding that the country is likely to experience above-normal rains in May.
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The weatherman is likely to announce the date of onset of monsoon in the second week of May.
Rain pillow
A favorable start to the monsoon cycle is crucial for India’s economy, where agriculture accounts for 15-16% of GDP and supports nearly 46% of the population. Heavy rainfall usually boosts farm incomes, boosts rural consumption and helps moderate food inflation, thereby increasing overall purchasing power.
Economists estimate that a good monsoon could add 20-40 basis points to India’s GDP growth, currently estimated at 6.5-6.8% for FY27, according to the Reserve Bank of India and multilateral agencies such as the International Monetary Fund.
Those projections have come under pressure as conflict in West Asia has disrupted energy and food markets and raised the risk of higher inflation and slower consumption.
Retail inflation rose slightly to 3.4% in March from 3.21% in February, reflecting a rise in food and energy prices following the conflict in West Asia. While the value remains below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%, the rise suggests emerging price pressures.
IMD’s May outlook bolsters expectations of an early revival in the kharif sowing season. With rainfall forecast at more than 110% of the long-term average (LPA) of 61.4mm, soil moisture levels are likely to improve, allowing for early land preparation and early sowing of crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, especially in rainfed areas. The LPA of rainfall over the country as a total during May, based on data from 1971-2020, is about 61.4 mm. Last year, 106% of normal rainfall fell in May.
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“Better rainfall in May is likely to support higher sowing, especially of key kharif crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, which should in turn improve overall agricultural production. This has positive implications for food security as higher production helps stabilize stocks,” said Abhash Kumar, assistant professor of economics at Delhi University.
“It can also ease the pressure on food inflation, especially if supported by efficient procurement and distribution, as better crop yields tend to moderate prices in the months following the harvest,” Kumar said.
Demand outlook
Rural demand, which has lagged behind urban consumption in recent quarters, is expected to recover on the back of a favorable monsoon. It is expected to grow by 6-7% in FY27, up from 3-4% last year, based on estimates by brokerages such as ICICI Securities and Nuvama Institutional Equities in April. In good monsoon years, sectors such as two-wheelers, tractors and fast-moving consumer goods typically see a 10-12% increase in volume, according to industry reports and past trend analysis by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
Urban demand, meanwhile, remains relatively resilient, growing at 7-8%, supported by steady wage growth and a buoyant service sector, according to estimates by India’s central bank in April. Private consumption, which accounts for nearly 58-60% of GDP, is expected to strengthen collectively, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation’s National Accounts for Q3 2626.
Even so, the broader monsoon outlook remains less certain.
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On 13 April, the IMD predicted that the southwest monsoon could be below normal this year at around 92% of the long-term average, with 96-104% considered normal. The last occurrence of a below-normal monsoon was in 2023, when rainfall reached 95%. Forecast models also point to the possible emergence of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season, a phenomenon associated with a warming Pacific Ocean and typically associated with lower rainfall in India.
The Southwest Monsoon typically hits the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around 20 May and advances to the Kerala coast around 1 June. Last year, it arrived over Kerala on May 24, ahead of the normal date. Monsoon rainfall was 8% above normal in 2025.
This year’s forecast suggests an early onset over the Andaman Islands.
Regionally, rainfall in May is likely to be normal to above normal in most parts of the country, except some areas in East and North East India and Central East regions where below normal rainfall is expected.
Pre-monsoon showers are also expected to moderate temperatures in several parts of the country. During May, above normal heat days are likely over some parts of Himalayan foothills like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, East Coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra.
