A pattern of unusual trading activity has emerged ahead of US President Donald Trump’s major public statements during his second term, raising concerns about possible insider trading, according to a detailed BBC analysis.
The news outlet said it examined trading volumes in various financial markets and found that repeated swings occur minutes – or even hours – before key statements by the US president. The report notes that these patterns are consistently emerging in the oil, equity and emerging prediction platform markets.
Some analysts quoted by the news portal said the activity “bears the hallmarks” of insider trading, where investors act on the basis of non-public information. But others have argued that experienced traders can simply anticipate political signals more effectively in a volatile geopolitical environment.
Oil markets show early moves
One of the most obvious examples the portal cites took place on March 9, 2026, during the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The report said oil prices fell about 25% after Trump said in an interview with CBS News that the war was “very much done, pretty much,” signaling a potential de-escalation. However, the BBC reported that the surge in bets predicting a drop in oil prices took place 47 minutes before the interview was published. According to the BBC, traders who got in early likely made millions of dollars.
A similar pattern was observed on March 23, 2026, when Trump posted on Truth Social “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. The news outlet noted that oil prices fell 11% immediately after the news was released, but unusual trading activity was already seen about 14 minutes earlier.
Stock Market Bets Before Policy Change
The outlet also highlighted stock market movements linked to Trump’s tariff decisions. On April 9, 2025, the president announced a 90-day pause in blanket tariffs — previously revealed as “Liberation Day” — which sparked a massive rally in stocks.
The benchmark S&P 500 is said to have risen 9.5%, one of its biggest one-day gains in a decade. However, the outlet said trading volumes increased significantly just before the announcement, with contracts jumping to more than 10,000 per minute.
According to the BBC, some traders placed multi-million dollar bets shortly before the news, potentially making up to $20 million.
The unusual activity has prompted several US lawmakers to urge the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether insiders have benefited unfairly.
Market prediction under scrutiny
The BBC also pointed to growing concerns in blockchain-based prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
In one case highlighted, a user on Polymarket bet $32,500 predicting the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro just days before he was detained, winning over $436,000.
In another case, six accounts reportedly made a combined $1.2 million by correctly betting on US strikes against Iran before they were officially announced. The analysis found that most of these accounts became inactive soon after.
Polymarket told the BBC it adheres to the “highest standards of market integrity” and is working with regulators to prevent abuse.
Insider trading has been illegal in the US since 1933 – and in 2012 it was extended to cover government officials.
Read also | Trump Says Israel ‘Never Talked Me’ Into War With Iran
