How El Niño Can Hurt India’s Economy | Explained

A migrant farm worker prepares rice seedlings for transplanting in a field in Thenkurussi, Palakkad on Thursday, July 2, 2026. The erratic progress of the Southwest Monsoon across Kerala has raised concerns about agricultural operations in Palakkad district. | Photo credit: KK Mustafah

After the first month of this year’s monsoon ended in a massive 40% deficit, the India Meteorological Department predicted July’s rainfall would also be “below normal”, or less than 94% of what is normal for the month. “Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges to agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability,” the agency warned. The outlook for July comes on the back of light rainfall in June.

Data from the IMD showed that rainfall in June was 99.5 mm against the long-term average of 165.3 mm, a decline of 39.8% from normal in all the four meteorological subdivisions. The outlook comes weeks after Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan sounded the alarm, warning of the impact of a potential “super” El Niño. “This could directly affect the Kharif crop, especially in rainfed areas where agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoon rains,” he told reporters on June 23, 2026.

Published – July 4, 2026 11:25 AM IST