Seven rounds of the Candidates 2026 tournament are complete. We are now halfway through the marathon that will determine who will challenge Gukesh to the World Chess Championship.
Two clear trends emerged in this issue. Unlike Candidates 2024 in Canada, the script has flipped. In 2024, the women’s category was one-sided, with Tan Zhongyi running away from the field. Meanwhile, the Open category went down and Gukesh needed the Fabiano Caruana-Ian Nepomniachtchi match to end in a draw to secure the title.
In 2026, the opposite is true. The Open category looks almost even, with Javokhir Sindarov building a gap over the rest of the field. However, the women’s section is wide open, with Vaishali Rameshbabu’s two wins in a row moving her within half a point of Anna Muzychuk.
So what should Indian fans realistically expect from Candidates 2026?
In the Open category, Praggnanandhaa now finds himself in a position where he probably needs five or six wins from his remaining seven games to stay in contention. Even that may not be enough. These wins would have to coincide with a dip in Sindarov’s form in the second half of the tournament.
This makes the situation relatively clear. India’s hopes in the Open section are fading and a Sindarov vs Gukesh World Cup clash at the end of 2026 is increasingly likely.
However, the women’s section offers real promise.
Vaishali’s back-to-back wins after losing to Zhu Jiner in the 5th round put her firmly in contention for the title. Similar to the 2024 India vs China story between Gukesh and Ding Liren, the possibility of Vaishali facing Ju Wenjun is starting to take shape.
On the other hand, Divya Deshmukh’s missed opportunity against Kateryna Lagno could prove costly.
WHAT CLICKED FOR VAISHALI?
Throughout the tournament so far, Vaishali has looked solid in both preparation and tactical awareness.
She was held to composite draws in her first four rounds. However, the 5th round against Zhu Jiner revealed a crack. A single inaccuracy – King e6 – complicated the endgame and things unraveled from there. Zhu held an extra pawn and a more active king, Vaishali was always on the back foot and finally resigned after 62 moves.
But that loss seems to have triggered a reset.
On turn 6, Vaishali’s King’s Pawn opening combined with Berlin’s defense gave her a stable position early on. Lagno began to hesitate under time pressure. Although Vaishali also had a moment of inaccuracy with her queen on f6, Lagno’s rook move on c1 opened the floodgates. Three blunders in 11 moves allowed Vaishali to capitalize and secure the win.
The 7th round had a similar course.
An opening king’s walk once again gave Vaishali a foothold. She was under pressure at one stage, but Tan Zhongyi’s rook move to a1 proved to be a decisive mistake. Vaishali used the moment to record back-to-back wins.
PRAGG GOES IN, DIVYA FAILS TO CAPITALIZE
Divya Deshmukh has also started to gain momentum after a slow start.
Her win against Bibisara Assaubayev was a statement as she capitalized on a big mistake (Queen d3) and finished in style. The result was important, especially after losing to Zhu Jiner in the 4th round and drawing against Tan Zhongyi.
However, the candidates again highlighted how quickly luck can shift in chess. Just months ago, at the World Championships, Divya was consistently beating top Chinese players like Tan and Zhu. She looked to repeat that form in this tournament.
The marathon of 135 moves against Lagna hurt her the most.
For most of this game, Divya had the advantage. However, the transfer of this edge required patience and precision. Instead, one kingside move on c1 allowed the position to slip. What could have been a decisive win turned into a draw.
In the Open category, no one has yet found a way through Sindarov.
The Uzbek star is relentless, combining sharp preparation with discipline. Praggnanandhaa experienced this firsthand in the 3rd round. In the tricky middle game, moving Pragg’s rook to c5 allowed the advantage to dissipate while Sindarov remained balanced.
The 19-year-old is setting up a campaign reminiscent of Ian Nepomniachtchi in 2022 when he came through and finished with 9.5/14. Sindarov could even challenge the record for most points in a single Candidates tournament since 2013 saw the introduction of an eight-player, two-round format.
However, one thing is becoming increasingly clear.
The dream of an all-India World Cup final is receding. And if that’s the case, Gukesh may have a monumental challenge ahead of him in the form of Sindarov.
– The end
Issued by:
Kingshuk Kusari
Published on:
06 Apr 2026 13:44 IST
