For the past 35 days, the US and Israel have been relentlessly dropping bombs and firing missiles at Iran, including some of the Islamic Republic’s key strategic assets. When the US announced the launch of Operation Epic Fury, one of the stated objectives was to wipe out Iran’s arsenal and ballistic missile production facilities.
Iran’s missile arsenal
Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, including ballistic and cruise missiles. Iranian missiles could potentially hit anywhere in the Middle East, including Israel, and it is for this reason that Washington and Jerusalem have been trying to eliminate this threat for a very long time.
How many missiles did Iran have?
Before the war began, US intelligence estimated that Iran had a missile arsenal of somewhere between 1,500 and 3,000, including short- and medium-range systems.
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On the first day of the conflict, Iran launched about 90 missiles, which has now dropped to 10-30 per day. Analysts say this is a sign that Iran’s stockpiles are depleting as a result of the protracted conflict and targeted US-Israeli strikes on Tehran’s missile infrastructure, including production and storage facilities.
What US intelligence assessments say
However, according to the latest US intelligence estimates, nearly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact, CNN reported.
“They are still very much ready to wreak absolute havoc across the region,” a source told CNN.
It’s not just the missiles; US intelligence also believes that another deadly weapon in Iran’s arsenal, its kamikaze drones, of which there are thousands, is also still intact.
Read also | The US believes that about one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal was destroyed by drones
However, the report added that “intact” missiles may also include launchers that are currently inaccessible, such as those that were buried underground in the strikes but not destroyed.
Reuters also revealed last week that the U.S. now believes it has not destroyed as many Iranian missiles as first thought.
Reuters, citing five people familiar with US intelligence, said Washington could only say with certainty that it had destroyed about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal.
A Reuters report also painted a similar picture about Iran’s drones.
Assessment intelligence versus public claims
The intelligence assessment differs significantly from the public position of the Donald Trump administration. Many, including Trump, have repeatedly insisted that the US has significantly destroyed Iran’s ability to build and launch missiles.
“Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been dramatically curtailed and their weapons factories and missile launchers have been blown to pieces, with very few left,” Trump said in his address to the nation on Wednesday.
Iran can still produce over 100 missiles per month
Before the war, the US and Israel estimated that Iran was producing more than 100 ballistic missiles a month. Although some of its production facilities were hit, Iran focused on rapidly ramping up production to replace its used or destroyed stockpiles.
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Last month, an Israeli military spokesman said Iran could build an arsenal of up to 8,000 ballistic missiles by 2027 if it continues to renew its missile program, which was targeted by the June 2025 US-Israeli strikes.
Key things
- US intelligence suggests that Iran still has significant missile capabilities despite ongoing military operations.
- Estimates suggest that nearly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact.
- Iran is rapidly ramping up missile production to replenish its arsenal.
