New Delhi: According to the latest outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India is likely to witness normal to sub-normal temperatures in most parts of the country during April-June.
Daytime heat may be less intense in some areas, but eastern and northeastern India, along with parts of central and adjacent peninsular regions, are expected to experience above-normal daytime temperatures, increasing the risk of localized heat stress, the IMD said.
Scientists have indicated that the prevailing weather conditions and forecast are likely to be beneficial for the wheat crop. “Current temperature patterns, climate conditions and forecasts are favorable for the crop. So far, the weather remains favorable rather than adverse, which could help stabilize production levels in key growing areas,” said Ratan Tiwari, Director, ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR), Karnal.
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This assumes significance as India expects to produce 120.21 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026-27 rabi marketing season, up from 117.94 million tonnes a year earlier.
The IMD warned of an above-normal number of hot days in large parts of eastern and central-eastern India, the southeastern peninsula and pockets of northwestern and central-western regions. India usually sees three to five days of heat during April to June, but this year there could be another two to four days.
Most regions of the country are expected to experience higher than normal heatwave days including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, West Bengal, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, coastal Tamil Nadu and northern parts of Karnataka during April-June.
Warmer than normal
Minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over most of India, indicating warmer nights during the season.
“During the season, above normal minimum temperatures are likely in most parts of the country except some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely,” said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD. Such conditions could reduce nighttime cooling and add to overall thermal discomfort.
During April, monthly maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal in many parts of the country. However, above normal maximum temperatures are expected over many parts of East and Northeast India and some parts of Northwest India and South Peninsular India.
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While wheat may benefit, other crops face downside risks. According to IMD agricultural assessments, intense heat stress during critical reproductive stages can affect key crops such as boro rice, maize, green gram, black gram and vegetables such as tomato, chilli and brinjal. This could lead to poor grain formation, flower drop and lower yields, especially in the eastern, northeastern, northwestern and southern peninsular regions.
Chickpea and lentil crops are expected to mature faster due to rising temperatures, shortening grain-filling periods and reduced productivity in eastern and central-eastern parts of the country.
Horticultural crops are also threatened, with reduced fruit set and increased flower drop reported in mango and banana plantations, especially in the southern regions.
“Furthermore, rapid depletion of soil moisture due to high evapotranspiration rates is likely to stress standing crops and intensify irrigation requirements,” the IMD said. Experts warn that early intervention and adaptive measures will be key to mitigating potential losses.
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