Just days before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, two charter flights organized by the Kuwaiti unit of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)-affiliated Kerala Muslim Cultural Center (KMCC) landed in Kerala, an effort that underscored the political weight of expatriate voters working in the Persian Gulf.
However, replicating this model has proved much more difficult ahead of the April 9 assembly elections. Despite early preparations, including voter registrations and coordination efforts, the unfolding conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran derailed the plans.
“Kuwait airport remains closed for scheduled flights and travel options are limited and expensive, with prices almost tripling. Despite the prevailing situation, we are trying to arrange at least one charter flight, but the feasibility depends on the situation and how many people are willing to travel,” says Musthafa Kari, Secretary General, Kuwait KMCC, indicating both logistical and behavioral constraints.
Campaign financing
In recent decades, political parties have increasingly relied on Gulf voters not only for electoral support but also for campaign financing. While the 2016 polls saw the peak of this mobilization, with dedicated charter flights, participation in 2021 was dampened by the restrictions of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the current crisis brings a more uncertain variable driven by geopolitical risk.
According to Kunhimon Sahip Kaakkiyya, president of Saudi Arabia’s KMCC, foreigners are now considering the risk of travel and job security.
“In explorations in 2024, we have arranged five charter flights from Saudi Arabia. This time the cost has gone up and there is uncertainty about returning on time, which is making many people hesitate. The bulk travel will depend on how the situation develops,” says Mr Kaakkiya.
The disruption underscores a wider reliance on overseas voters, particularly in northern Kerala, with potentially significant electoral implications. Of the state’s 2.42 lakh expatriate voters, 66.29% are concentrated in Kozhikode, Kannur and Malappuram districts, covering 40 assembly seats, some of which are hotly contested.
In many constituencies in the Malabar region with significant overseas voters, such as Kuttiadi, Nadapuram and Kannur, where margins of victory are often narrow, reduced expatriate turnout could be decisive this time. For example, the Kuttiadi segment in Kozhikode has the highest number of expatriate voters in the state at 16,206. The winning margin there in the 2021 assembly polls was just 333 votes. Similarly, the margins in Kannur and Nadapuram were 1,745 and 4,036 votes respectively.
“Strategic Shift”
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which draws considerable support from expatriate communities, especially those associated with the IUML, appears particularly exposed. Party leaders recognize this and point to a strategic shift.
“The inability of foreign voters to visit the state and cast their votes is a problem in some constituencies. Efforts are being made to arrange flights in key constituencies, but concerns about the return journey remain. We are therefore strengthening local campaign activities to fill the possible gaps,” says Ummer Pandikashala, IUML State Vice President.
The financial dimension adds another layer of impact. Contributions from fellow citizens, a key element of campaign finance, have declined due to the uncertainty. “Funding has decreased because many workers are wary of job security in the current situation,” says Amir Pattanath, vice president of the Central Committee of the Overseas Indian Cultural Congress, Riyadh.
Observers say the United Democratic Front (UDF) is the most affected by the situation, with much at stake. “Among the foreign voters who subscribe to the UDF, almost 80% belong to the IUML. Family members of emigrants in Kerala are also not in a positive mood and it remains to be seen whether they will come to the polls. The crisis in West Asia could potentially boost the prospects of the Left Democratic Front in at least a few constituencies,” says Pallikary Confederation general secretary Intakoya.
Published – 31 March 2026 09:52 IST
