A “step-by-step” increase in social security pensions to ₹2,500 per month was the big promise of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) ahead of the 2021 assembly elections. The LDF, which won the elections by a landslide, increased the pensions from ₹1,600 to ₹2,000 eventually as its five-year term came to an end. The hike was part of a series of welfare measures announced by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan in the State Assembly in October 2025 ahead of crucial local body elections in December. Also, the state budget for 2026-2027, which was presented in January this year, was widely spread with social juices.
As Kerala heads towards the 2026 assembly elections, welfare measures – including social security pensions – are once again in the spotlight. Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, has already promised five basic “welfare guarantees” to Kerala, which include raising social pensions to ₹3,000 if the United Democratic Front (UDF) comes to power. Main queues. including the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have yet to formally publish their election manifestos, but it is not clear that social welfare will figure prominently in them.
But how much these competing promises would sway voters in today’s highly politically charged electoral landscape remains a big question as Election Day nears. While campaigning across Kerala, LDF candidates highlighted the welfare measures introduced by Mr. Vijayan’s government. Apart from the increase in welfare pensions, the government has announced an increase in the monthly wages of ASHA workers, pre-primary teachers, Anganwadi and Saksharatha Preraks workers and helpers and mid-day meal workers.
On the Congress side, Mr. Gandhi’s five assurances on March 7 included a health insurance scheme as well as free travel for women in buses run by the Kerala State Road Transport Corporation.
Pensioners would naturally welcome even a small increase in their monthly payments, but the crux of the problem is who makes promises and who is more likely to keep them, says LN Selvaraj, a 68-year-old retiree from Thiruvananthapuram district. “However, there is no doubt that for older people these pensions are beneficial because they can cover expenses to some extent without being dependent on their children,” he says.
Raising doubts
At the other end of the spectrum, economists and political scientists tend to question the rationale behind such poll promises, given the huge costs involved in implementing and maintaining them. Finance Minister KN Balagopal pegged the total expenditure on welfare measures announced by Mr Vijayan in October 2025 at “not less than ₹10,000 crore”. The increase in social security pensions from ₹1,600 to ₹2,000 per beneficiary alone has put an additional burden of ₹3,000 crore annually.
The latest Fiscal Health Index released this month by NITI Aayog lists Kerala among states “facing persistent fiscal stress due to rising debt, persistent deficits and subdued revenue growth”. In the national rankings, Kerala falls to the bottom of the list. Its fiscal position reflects the challenge of balancing strong social and development commitments with limited fiscal flexibility. Although the state has consistently focused on development and social spending, the scale of capital investment remains relatively modest compared to other states. “The amount of allocated expenditure on salaries and wages, pension and interest payments represented 55% to 68% of revenue expenditure from 2019-20 to 2023-24,” the company said.
A change of perspective
Regardless of the promises made by political parties, there is now a big shift in the way voters perceive them in an age where electoral battles are mostly fought online, says former State Finance Commission chairman BA Prakash. “Certainly, if we look at elections in the recent past, we can see an increasing interest in ‘cash distribution systems’. Whereas in earlier elections, what political party workers and party machines said was more influential. Online platforms and constant chatter have brought an unexpected change in the perspective of voters, especially the younger generation,” he said.
Prof. Prakash also questions the rationale and sustainability of the populist measures, noting that subsequent Comptroller General and Auditor General (CAG) reports point to continued fiscal pressure in Kerala.
Political scientist G. Gopakumar says social security could have a strong influence on voters in a scenario where the poll result is mired in uncertainty as three fronts vie for supremacy. However, political parties seem to focus on “winning” in this regard rather than the cost factor involved in these promises and declarations, he said.
Whoever forms the new government in Kerala, meeting the expenditure linked to the poll promises is likely to involve a fiscal tightrope walk. The 16th Finance Commission increased Kerala’s share of divisible tax pool from 1.92% to 2.382%. However, the Commission also decided to end the Revenue Deficit (RD) subsidies to the states, which was a big blow.
Published – March 30, 2026 0:01 AM IST
