As campaign caravans criss-cross Kerala’s towns and villages in the run-up to the Assembly elections, the conversation in teahouses and ration queues is less about slogans and more about prices. Inflation, though a quiet factor, has emerged as the defining undercurrent shaping voter sentiment across the state.
For do-it-yourselfers like Lakshmi Suresh in Mannanthala, Thiruvananthapuram, the arithmetic of survival has become tougher. Rice, once a predictable commodity, now fluctuates wildly. Indispensable in Kerala cuisine, coconut oil has seen a dramatic increase. “Every visit to the market feels like a negotiation,” he says.
What the data says
Her concerns are reflected in the data: the state’s consumer food price index climbed to 6.17%, well above the national average (3.47% in February).
But Kerala’s story is not just one of rising prices, but also one of a long-term welfare architecture that seeks to mitigate its effects. For decades, the public distribution system has functioned as the backbone of food security in the state. Kerala State Planning Board member K. Ravi Raman says the state’s universal food security framework has insulated vulnerable sections from the worst effects of inflation.
Additional subsidies
It also highlights that Kerala’s approach consistently goes beyond the minimum mandates of the National Food Security Act (NFSA). While the law covers a limited portion of the population, the state expanded additional subsidies and categories to include those left out, thereby maintaining near-universal coverage. This has been critical to maintaining social stability during periods of economic stress, including the COVID-19 pandemic, floods and other crises.
Dr. Raman adds that Kerala’s public distribution system has been constantly adapting to changing socio-economic realities. The system combines grocery stores, Supplyco stores and monitoring with technology to reduce leakage and improve transparency.
Price stabilization
A key aspect of the ongoing intervention was the effort to stabilize prices on the free market. He points out that becoming a fixer and supply of 13 essential commodities at subsidized rates through Supplyco outlets has sought to act as a counterweight to inflationary pressures.
Anitha Kumary L., Visiting Faculty, Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation, points out that nearly ₹10,000 crore has been allocated for food security and subsidy since 2020-21. He credits government market intervention programs with stabilizing prices during the COVID-19 pandemic and other disruptions. Initiatives such as Janakeeya Hotels, which offered food for ₹25, and Supplyco’s discounted sale of essentials are often cited as examples of targeted welfare translating into everyday relief.
However, he acknowledges that inflationary pressures remain structurally higher in a consumer state like Kerala with specific consumption patterns, especially for coconut-based products. In such a context, permanent and more intensive intervention in the market is not optional, but necessary, stressed Prof. Anita.
Supplyco Trouble
However, this relative success story is being hotly contested. Public policy expert John Samuel argues that state intervention in the market has not been up to par. While the rationing system relies heavily on central allocations under the NFSA, it points to systemic weaknesses in the functioning of Supplyco. Mounting arrears, late payments and store shortages were undermining the effectiveness of price control efforts, he argued.
“Many stores simply didn’t have enough stock when people needed it. As a result, when subsidized goods don’t hit the shelves in time, consumers are pushed to the open market, where prices are significantly higher.”
High shipping costs
Mr Samuel also highlights wider structural issues including the state’s dependence on imports, declining agricultural output and rising fuel costs that drive up transport costs. Rising prices of perishable goods, including rice, coconut oil and vegetables, have contributed to Kerala ranking among the highest rural inflation rates in the country.
Economist Mary George also points to recurring shortfalls at Supplyco stores, especially during high-demand festive periods like Onam, and a drop in supplier participation due to late payments. “When dues pile up, suppliers stay away. Either shortage or reduced quality follows. Several examples of substandard food grains have entered the system,” he claims.
“80% imported”
It also accuses the LDF government of failing to fulfill its promise to provide essential commodities at significantly lower rates compared to open markets. Prof. George says the bigger problem facing Kerala’s food security mechanism is its structural vulnerability. “Since nearly 80% of its requirements are imported, any fluctuation in fuel prices or supply chains quickly translates into local inflation. In such a scenario, timely and effective government intervention becomes essential. Failure to act at critical moments has worsened the situation,” he notes.
As the election approaches, different narratives are playing out in conversations with voters, whether it’s about a robust social security system or its shortcomings. For many, the question is not whether the state intervened, but whether these interventions were sufficient, timely and reliable.
Published – 29 March 2026 08:16 IST
