An explosion that injured over 30 civilians and tore through houses in Bahrain’s Mahazza earlier this month may have been caused by a US-operated Patriot air defense battery and not an Iranian drone strike as previously believed.
On Saturday, Bahrain admitted for the first time that a Patriot missile was involved in the explosion over the Mahazza neighborhood on Sitra Island, off the coast of the capital Manama and home to an oil refinery.
What did Bahrain say
In a statement to Reuters, a Bahraini government spokesman said the missile had successfully intercepted an Iranian drone in mid-air, saving lives.
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“The damage and injuries suffered were not the result of a direct impact of the Patriot fighter jet or the Iranian drone on the ground,” the spokesman said.
The US and Bahrain have Patriot systems
Both Bahrain and the United States operate U.S. Patriot air defense batteries in the kingdom, a close U.S. ally based in the Persian Gulf that hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet along with the U.S. Naval Regional Command.
What happened on March 9
According to Bahrain’s national oil company Bapco, the Sitra refinery came under Iranian attack the night of the Mahazza incident.
Video of the aftermath of the Mahazza explosion in Bahrain, verified by Reuters, shows debris around houses, a thick layer of dust in the streets, an injured man and screaming residents.
Reuters was unable to determine whether the cause of the explosion during the night of the Iranian attacks on Sitra was immediately apparent to US and Bahraini forces.
What the researchers found
But research associates Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman and Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey concluded with medium to high certainty that the suspected missile was likely fired from a US Patriot battery located about 7 km southwest of the Mahazza neighborhood.
The conclusions of three US munitions and open-source intelligence researchers were based on their review of open-source visuals and commercial satellite imagery.
Manufactured by Raytheon, part of RTX Corp, the Patriot is the U.S. military’s primary long- to medium-range air and missile interceptor system and forms the backbone of U.S. and allied air defenses.
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Scientists were unable to say for sure what caused the Patriot to explode. But they added that based on available evidence, including the pattern and spread of damage on the ground, it appeared to have exploded mid-flight.
They concluded that it was possible that the Patriot was targeting a low-flying drone and that the combined explosion of the missile and drone ignited the explosion, the analysis said.
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“If so, it was an irresponsible interception attempt as it endangered the lives and homes of allied civilians in a residential area,” the analysis said.
This scenario matches what a Bahraini government spokesman says happened: that a Patriot intercepted an Iranian drone and both exploded in mid-air.
Asymmetric warfare
The use of expensive and advanced weapons to defend against attacks by much cheaper drones was a defining feature of the war. The incident highlights the risks and limitations of this strategy: The blast from the powerful Patriot, whether intercepted by the drone or not, contributed to widespread damage and casualties, while Bahrain’s air defenses were unable to prevent strikes on a nearby oil refinery that night, which declared force majeure hours later.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Key things
- The use of advanced military technology in an urban environment poses a significant risk to civilian security.
- Defending against cheap drone attacks with expensive missiles can lead to unintended consequences.
- The incident underscores the complexity of modern warfare and the need for improved strategies to protect civilians.
