A new bet on Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, has generated a lot of interest. We are talking about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“A new account just deposited more than $145,000 in Netanyahu by March 31st. It was created less than 2 hours ago and it started with this bet. Potential payout: almost $4,000,000 (approx. ₹37 million),” a social media user wrote while sharing a screenshot of the bet.
The website shows that the user (dududududu22) has deposited roughly $170,000 (almost ₹1.6 million) that Netanyahu will soon be “out”. The market currently disagrees.
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The odds have moved against them and they are sitting on over $10,000 in losses. With just two weeks to go until the March 31st deadline, it is highly unlikely that the first bet will pay off.
At Polymarket, “out” in a political context usually means that the person is no longer in their position. This can be through resignation, losing an election or a vote in parliament. However, it could also mean a coup or any other reason for them to lose power.
Does “out” mean death?
If the market were specifically concerned with Netanyahu’s death, it would almost always be stated explicitly. Polymarket is precise in its wording, because the distinction criteria must be unambiguous.
However, given the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, death is likely one scenario that ‘Yes’ bettors may have in mind. If Benjamin Netanyahu is dead, that also means he is “out” of power. The contract will pay off if he leaves power for any reason.
This year is an election year for Israel. Surveys are due by October 2026. But given the ongoing war situation, it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. So if Netanyahu is “out” until March 31, it’s certainly not because of the election results.
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What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a US-based prediction market platform where users bet real money on the outcome of real-world events. They bet on elections, wars, economic indicators and more.
Polymarket gained mainstream attention during the 2024 US presidential election. It correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory ahead of most traditional polls.
The platform has notable political ties. Donald Trump Jr, the son of the US president, has become a member of Polymarket’s advisory board. His venture capital firm 1789 Capital strategically invested double-digit millions in the company.
According to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA, six Polymarket accounts earned $1 million while the Iranians were hit by airstrikes.
Most of these bets were placed just hours before the bombs were dropped on February 28. Accounts were created in February 2026.
There was no evidence of wrongdoing. But the timing raised serious questions about whether some punters had advanced knowledge.
Polymarket is effectively banned in India. Real money online gaming is prohibited under the Online Gaming Promotion and Regulation Act 2025.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Deadly Rumors
Rumors are circulating on social media that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has died. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office called the reports “fake news” and “disinformation”.
Netanyahu himself commented on the rumors in a video posted on his official account on the social network. He was seen in a cafe in Jerusalem. He jokingly said, “I’m dying… for coffee.”
Read also | Is Benjamin Netanyahu dead? Social networks were flooded with rumors of the death of the Israeli prime minister
Israel’s ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, separately confirmed that Netanyahu is “very much alive”. He also claimed that the cafe video is authentic.
However, social networks are still full of conspiracy theories. Many claim that the latest videos are from the time of the pandemic. They wonder how the Prime Minister and the people of Israel can act so cheerfully when the country is at war.
