Former deputy national security adviser Pankaj Saran said India was relatively better placed to absorb short-term shocks thanks to its strategic oil reserves, but stressed the importance of diversifying sources of oil imports beyond the Persian Gulf. File | Photo credit: PTI
Former Deputy National Security Adviser Pankaj Saran on Wednesday (11 March 2026) warned that rising volatility in global oil prices due to tensions over the conflict between Iran, the US and Israel could have significant economic implications for India if the situation persists.
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On the sidelines of the Synergia 2026 conclave in New Delhi, Mr Saran said oil prices were “flying up and down” and the coming days would be important to gauge the trend. However, he stressed that the bigger concern lies in the medium and long-term impact.
According to him, any sustained rise in oil prices could affect India’s current account deficit and balance of payments as nearly 90% of the country’s energy imports are paid in US dollars. He noted that higher oil prices would also have negative effects on inflation and economic growth.
Economic consequences
“If the spike lasts only a few days or weeks, the impact may be manageable. But if it continues for longer, there will definitely be economic consequences,” he said, pointing out that smaller energy-importing economies such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are already feeling the strain.
Mr Saran said India was relatively better placed to absorb short-term shocks due to its strategic oil reserves, but stressed the importance of diversifying sources of oil imports beyond the Gulf. He added that India will have to maintain stable energy supplies by working with major producers such as Russia, the United States and the Gulf countries, while competing with large importers such as China during periods of tight supply.
He also emphasized the need to reduce tensions in the region, noting that the ongoing military campaign involving the United States and Iran has created a highly unstable environment. Maintaining diplomatic channels of communication will be key to ensure the conflict does not escalate further, he said.
Uncertain global order
The remarks came as the 10th edition of the Synergia 2026 conclave opened in New Delhi, bringing together more than 200 politicians, defense leaders, diplomats, intelligence officials and technology experts for three days of discussions on geopolitics, security and emerging technologies.
Organized by the Synergia Foundation, the conclave has developed over the past decade as a prominent platform for dialogue at the intersection of security, technology and global strategic affairs.
During the discussions, former director of Research and Analysis Wing AB Mathur highlighted the profound uncertainty in the global order marked by multiple conflicts, shifting alliances and rapid technological change. Former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed also highlighted the need for economic resilience in smaller states, warning that high indebtedness could push vulnerable economies to seek financial support from more geopolitical partners.
The day concluded with the Futurecraft Forum, which included a dialogue between Synergia Advisory Board Chair MK Narayanan and former Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yee on evolving geopolitical dynamics and regional cooperation.
Published – 11 March 2026 22:26 IST
