NASA’s Van Allen Probe A, a 1,323-pound probe launched in 2012, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on March 10, 2026, around 7:45 p.m. EDT, according to the US Space Force. Part of a dual mission with Van Allen Probe B, the probe has studied Earth’s radiation belts for nearly seven years, providing vital data on space weather, solar storms and cosmic rays.
Will it fall or burn?
Most spacecraft are expected to burn up in the atmosphere. However, some components can survive re-entry and reach the Earth’s surface. NASA estimates that the risk to humans is extremely low – about 1 in 4,200.
Why earlier than expected?
NASA’s Van Allen Probe A, launched on August 30, 2012, along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, has been studying Earth’s radiation belts for nearly seven years. Originally designed for a two-year mission, the probes collected critical data on the Van Allen Belts, which protect Earth from harmful cosmic rays, solar storms and the solar wind. The mission ended in 2019 after the spacecraft ran out of fuel and could no longer orient itself towards the Sun.
Originally, scientists predicted Van Allen Probe A would re-enter in 2034. However, a stronger-than-expected solar cycle, peaking in 2024, increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft, allowing it to return nearly eight years earlier.
Can you look at the re-entry?
NASA and the US Space Force will monitor the satellite’s descent in real time, but it’s not visible to the naked eye via US tracking tools. They can provide updates online, although most of the debris will burn up before it reaches the ground.
Mission Legacy
The Van Allen probes revolutionized our understanding of the radiation belts by discovering a temporary third belt during intense solar activity. Data from the mission continues to help predict space weather phenomena that can affect satellites, astronauts and even critical systems on Earth such as navigation, communications and power grids.
Van Allen Probe B, the re-entry spacecraft’s twin, is not expected to re-enter until 2030, continuing to provide important science data.
