Iranian drone strikes could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz for months, but how long the Islamic Republic could sustain its missile fire is unclear, according to intelligence sources and military analysts.
Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and more than 1,000 drones at Washington-aligned Gulf states since the US-Israeli attack on Iran on Saturday. Most were intercepted by air defenses, but some residential and commercial buildings, infrastructure, and US military bases were damaged.
MAJOR DRONE MANUFACTURER
Tehran is a major producer of drones and has the industrial capacity to produce around 10,000 a month, according to the Center for Information Resilience, a non-profit research group funded by Britain’s Foreign Office.
The size of its missile stockpile is unknown, with estimates ranging from 2,500 by the Israeli military to around 6,000 by other analysts. How much of Iran’s weapons stockpile remains could be a key factor in determining the course of the war.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow junction between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes, has been one of Iran’s main objectives, and shipping through the key energy artery has come to a near halt after Iran hit six vessels.
Energy prices have jumped, with Brent crude up 12% and Europe’s natural gas benchmark up about 50% so far this week.
“Iran will not fold easily or quickly, it has the means to prevent commercial traffic from flowing through Hormuz,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
“The US prioritizes attacking Iran’s munitions, bases and facilities that threaten the strait. But all Iran has to do is show it can hit a few tankers and the fear will take care of the rest, people just won’t pass,” McNally said.
RATA DELIVERS A VULNERABLE POINT
According to the former director of the British intelligence service MI6, the supply of strategic missiles is a vulnerable point for Iran.
“Russia is not in a position to supply and China will be quite cautious in that regard. If it were to become known that China is indeed providing some kind of serious military equipment to Iran, it would be very bad for the GCC states,” he said, referring to members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
The stockpile of missiles may be lower because Tehran has been supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, a second Western intelligence source said.
Read also | US-Iran conflict: Tehran closes Strait of Hormuz – list of countries affected
Stocks were also reduced during the 12-day war with Israel in June, but have been partially restored, according to Israeli military intelligence.
A key limitation may be missile launchers. Supplies have at least halved over the past year due to strikes by Israel and the US, and have fallen further in the past five days, a survey by Britain’s CIR showed.
Despite this, it is likely that Iran will be able to fight with its drones. The country’s latest generation of Shahed-136 drones have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers (435 to 620 miles), enough to reach anywhere on the southern Gulf coast when launched from the Iranian mainland or vessels, according to Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute.
Many of these are produced in dual-use plants, and other facilities could be converted to increase production, the CIR analyst said.
These drones have been able to penetrate the air defense systems of the Gulf states, with 65 entering the UAE since the conflict began.
Read also | Mint Explainer: How Long Can Iran Block the Strait of Hormuz?
They hit Amazon data centers, Dubai International Airport and the Fairmont Hotel. Bahrain suffered material damage to infrastructure, a US naval base and a hotel and apartment tower from the drones.
SEA MINES COULD PROLONG DISRUPTION
Oil traders are bracing for further price jumps as the length of the Strait of Hormuz breach becomes clearer in the coming days.
“I am very concerned, this risk is currently undervalued in the oil markets,” said a senior executive at Vitol, a global commodities trading house. “The prevailing theory is that Iran is first using old missiles and drones to wear out air defenses. If so, their response is yet to begin in earnest.”
And if missiles and drones run out, Iran could deploy sea mines. Tehran has a stockpile of 5,000 to 6,000 such mines, according to Dryad Global, a maritime risk firm.
They can be anchored to the seabed, propelled by rockets, or drift in the waters and explode when the vessel makes contact. At this point, there is no indication that mines have been laid in the Strait of Hormuz, analysts said.
“If sea mines are laid, it will take a long time to deal with them,” said Cormac McCarry, director of maritime intelligence and security services firm Control Risks. “We’ll be looking at moons of destruction there.
