OPEC agreed to resume raising oil production next month as the conflict sparked by US-Israeli strikes on Iran threatened to boost oil prices.
Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which suspended a series of increases during the first quarter, will add 206,000 barrels per day, according to the statement.
The increase surpasses monthly gains of just 137,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter and comes amid turmoil raging in the Middle East. The widening conflict has killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened regional oil production and disrupted traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz – a key route to global markets for some key OPEC members.
Bloomberg earlier reported that the group would consider a larger supply increase at Sunday’s meeting after the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran.
Decisions on formal production quotas may not indicate the full extent of the reaction of OPEC’s top nations. The Saudis, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have already started boosting oil exports last month, reflecting a spike in some of them during the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June.
Whether they can continue to do so may ultimately depend on the state of the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has slowed over the course of the conflict.
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Oil prices climbed to a seven-month high of $73 a barrel in London last week as concerns about US President Donald Trump’s military build-up and a series of production disruptions jolted a global market that appeared headed for a significant oversupply.
The war may also highlight how much more oil the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are physically capable of supplying after major members quickly resumed production last year.
The group’s spare production capacity is largely confined to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which together hold about 2.5 million barrels a day, or less than 3% of global supplies, according to the International Energy Agency. Some analysts believe that even this number may be overstated.
“Anything you bring in now leaves less in reserve,” said Helima Croft, head of commodity markets strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC.
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Ahead of 2026, top traders and forecasters were bracing for a significant oil glut as rising output from across the Americas overwhelmed demand growth, which had slowed.
Still, the picture soured after outages hit producers from North America to Kazakhstan, while sanctions caused a pile-up of costs from Russia and Iran that were unaffordable for most buyers. Meanwhile, China continued to collect some of the surplus into its strategic reserves.
Further opening of the taps may also be in line with Riyadh’s long-term goals. Almost a year ago, the Saudis stunned oil traders by quickly resuming production that had been halted since 2023, ignoring widespread warnings that global oil markets were already oversupplied.
Some OPEC delegates explained that breaking away from defending oil prices as an attempt to regain global market share had been ceded to competitors such as US shale miners in previous years. Riyadh also heeded Trump’s calls to lower fuel costs for American consumers, according to some analysts.
Disclaimer: This story was published from the agency’s news feed without editing the text. Only the title was changed.
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