Pakistan head into their final Super 8 clash against Sri Lanka with calculators and fingers crossed.
This is their last roll of the dice.
What appeared to be a fading campaign suddenly found life thanks to England beating New Zealand at the right time. One result turned this match from a routine finish to Pakistan’s final shot at the semi-finals.
The equation is clear. Win big or go home.
Salman Agha’s side are third with one point and a net rate of -0.461, while New Zealand are comfortably ahead with three points and a much better +1.390. What Pakistan need now is something they haven’t really been able to do in this tournament. Solid, all-round performance. Pakistan need a calculated win to secure their place in the semi-finals. (Photo by Reuters)
There were flashes, but never a full show.
Sahibzada Farhan was the only constant presence in an otherwise uneven batting line-up. He carried the scoring load more often than not, keeping Pakistan in the contest when things threatened to get carried away.
However, there is a lack of spark around him. The big names didn’t quite fire and the team often played it safe when they needed to push harder.
However, Pakistan and late drama at ICC events go hand in hand. This is familiar territory. Tricky math, long courses and just enough hope to keep things interesting.
Sri Lanka may be out, but they are not here to make up the numbers. Their run in the Super 8s has faltered after a strong start, but ending the home campaign on a high and dashing Pakistan’s semi-final hopes is reason enough for them to turn up.
With dry weather expected in Pallekele, there will be no interruptions to lean on. In Pakistan’s case, it is now about turning possibility into performance.
DOES PAKISTAN HAVE THE TOOLS FOR THIS MIRACLE?
Pakistan’s biggest struggle is not just with sheer run rate. It comes with its own limitations.
Sahibzada Farhan was the only constant in a batting line-up that otherwise looked for rhythm. His 283 runs kept Pakistan afloat but the lack of meaningful support was glaring. Babar Azam doesn’t seem to be in control of fluencywhile captain Salman Agha also found it difficult to dictate the tempo when the game demanded urgency. Farhan’s form may decide how Pakistan’s match against Sri Lanka goes. (Photo: Reuters)
This often left Pakistan drifting through the middle overs without the momentum needed to produce an impressive result.
The bowling unit offers hope, though not certainty. Shaheen Afridi’s performance against England hinted at a sharper pace and Pakistan will need early breakthroughs to dominate the game right from the start. Usman Tariq and the rest of the attack must add to that pressure if Pakistan are to create the kind of advantage this scenario requires.
More than anything else, this game will test Pakistan’s ability to let their guard down. The scale of victory required leaves little room for cricket to come first.
CAN AN INJURED SRI LANKA SPOIL PAK’S DREAM?
Sri Lanka may be out of the semi-final race, but they remain the last hurdle between Pakistan and a miracle.
Their exit was confirmed after a 61-run defeat by New Zealand in Colombo, marking the fifth successive World T20 Cup where they failed to reach the semi-finals.
Captain Dasun Shanaka urged fans not to lose faith in Sri Lankan cricket despite failure. Sri Lanka’s disappointing home campaign in the T20 World Cup is now over. (AP photo)
Now pride is at stake.
After a promising start that included a big win over Australia, Sri Lanka’s campaign petered out with successive defeats to Zimbabwe, England and New Zealand. Injuries have added to their woes, with Kusal Mendis unlikely to feature due to hamstring stiffness.
Nevertheless, the hosts still have pieces that can affect the match. Pathum Nissanka continues to be a reliable presence at the top and the spin-heavy conditions at Pallekele suit their bowling strengths.
HOW CAN PAKISTAN QUALIFY FOR SEMIS?
Pakistan’s path is narrow but not unrealistic.
If he bats first, the requirement is to post a competitive total and win by around 63 runs or more, depending on the score. For example, a total in the 150–180 range would require a profit margin in the mid-60s to overhaul New Zealand’s net run advantage.
If they bowl first, the more practical route may be to restrict Sri Lanka to a modest score and catch up quickly, ideally within 12 to 13 overs.
In short, this is less about scraping and more about producing a complete performance with both bat and ball.
SRI LANKA VS PAKISTAN: HEAD TO HEAD
The rivalry between the two sides in the T20 World Cup has been even.
They have met four times in the history of the tournament, with these meetings split into two. Sri Lanka famously defeated Pakistan in the semi-final in 2012 in Colombo, while Pakistan’s biggest moment came in the 2009 final where they defeated Sri Lanka to lift the trophy.
COURSE CONDITIONS
The Pallekele surface was not the easiest for the batsmen in this tournament.
While he offers early help to seamers with movement under lights, he tends to slow down as the game progresses and brings spin into play in the middle overs.
Recent matches here have tended towards low-to-medium totals, with only one score above 200 recorded so far. This makes Pakistan’s claim to a dominant victory more difficult, placing more emphasis on early breakthroughs and disciplined batting.
SRI LANKA VS PAKISTAN: PREDICTED XIS
Sri Lanka: Dasun Shanaka (c), Pathum Nissanka, Kamil Mishara (wk), Kusal Perera, Kamindu Mendis, Dunith Wellalage, Maheesh Theekshana, Dilshan Madushanka, Pramod Madushan, Dushan Hemantha, Pavan Rathnayake.
Pakistan: Salman Ali Agha (c), Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman, Sahibzada Farhan, Usman Khan (wk), Mohammad Nawaz, Saim Ayub, Shadab Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Usman Tariq, Naseem Shah.
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Issued by:
Debodinna Chakraborty
Published on:
28 Feb 2026 12:42 IST
