A tornado warning is in effect for the Midwest through Thursday night (local time) as the powerful storm is expected to produce a series of severe thunderstorms across much of the Ohio Valley.
According to AccuWeather, all types of severe weather will be possible during this period – including the strongest storms with high wind gusts, hail and torrential downpours that could even lead to flash flooding.
Areas of highest risk
Tornado watches are in effect for parts of Indiana, Kentucky, including Louisville and Illinois until 9:00 PM ET Thursday.
Most of the severe weather will extend from Illinois into Indiana, central Ohio, much of Kentucky and parts of West Virginia by Thursday night, AccuWeather said.
The strongest storms are most likely around Louisville, Kentucky and near Indianapolis.
Some thunder and lightning is likely to spread further northeast into parts of southern Michigan, northeastern Ohio, and western Pennsylvania Thursday night.
Is this Ohio’s first thunderstorm of the year?
According to AccuWeather, this will be the first thunderstorm of the year for some locations in the Ohio Valley. Several dozen severe weather reports came in from the Mississippi Valley and western New York on January 8-9, but parts of the Midwest remained free of severe weather.
Storm threat level 3 declared
According to Fox Weather, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a 3 out of 5 severe storm threat for parts of Illinois and Indiana.
This is the first Category 3 threat in nearly 5 months and the highest severe storm threat so far in 2026. Other areas remain under 2 of 5 threats.
SPC said potential tornadoes could reach EF-2 or stronger.
However, AccuWeather noted that despite enough warm air, moisture and buoyancy in the atmosphere to support some thunderstorms on Friday across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states, most thunderstorms are expected to be significant but remain below severe limits.
Fox Weather said dew points in the upper 50s to 60s are expected to move north to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers by Thursday evening.
The National Weather Service (NSW) said long-lasting, multi-hour supercells were possible and could boost the risk of severe tornadoes.
“The real key during the morning will be watching to determine when the storms transition from elevated to surface. Once they become surface, the threat will increase. This is expected to happen sometime between 11:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m.,” NWS St. Louis.
These storms are expected to weaken after dark as they move into the middle to upper Ohio Valley and encounter a more stable environment.