Bangladesh Elections: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led alliance is on course to emerge victorious from the Bangladeshi elections, winning at least 212 of the 299 seats that went to the polls on February 12.
Local media are predicting a landslide victory for the BNP – although their estimates vary. The party and its allies are expected to win around two-thirds of the seats. If the trends hold in the official results, Tarique Rahman, chairman of the BNP, will become the prime minister of Bangladesh.
The Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance won 70 constituencies, according to unofficial results reported by TV channels on Friday. The final numbers will be published by the Electoral Commission during the day.
Read also | Bangladesh election results LIVE: BNP declares victory, may win 211 seats
New Delhi is closely watching the vote in neighboring Bangladesh for several reasons.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended his “heartfelt congratulations” to Tarique Rahman for leading the BNP to a decisive victory in the Bangladesh elections.
“This victory shows the confidence of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership,”
India will continue to support a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh, PM Modi said. “I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multilateral relations and advance our common development goals,” he said.
Hasina’s years
In the fifteen years of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League rule in Bangladesh, New Delhi enjoyed friendly relations with Dhaka. Hasina, now in exile in India, served as prime minister from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 to 2024. During this period, India considered Bangladesh an important strategic partner and ally in maintaining security in South Asia.
However, ties between New Delhi and Dhaka began to deteriorate soon after the ouster of the Hasina-led group. Awami League regime on August 5, 2024 and subsequent violence against minorities, especially against minorities Hindu community.
As violence ensued across Bangladesh, Hasina fled to India.
So what does Tarique Rahman’s return to power of the BNP mean for India? Let us first look at the BNP’s relations with India under its late leader and former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, who died in December last year.
BNP establishes relations with India
Before Tarique took over, the BNP was led by his mother and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who died on 30 December 2025 after suffering from a long illness. She was 80.
New Delhi has traditionally viewed the Khaleda Zia dispensation in Bangladesh as less predictable and less cooperative, particularly on security matters. New Delhi got warmer Sheikh Hasina’s leadershiphe saw her as a more reliable partner.
Khaled Zia’s connection with India has usually been defined by distance rather than involvement. Although she did not sever relations with Delhi, her leadership marked a period of cold relations and limited strategic cooperation.
This was a stark contrast to the conclusion India-Bangladesh Partnership which developed during Sheikh Hasina’s rule in Bangladesh.
New Delhi-Dhaka links
Ties between Delhi and Dhaka have soured recently, more so after Hasina’s ouster and subsequent violence against Hindus, a substantial minority in Muslim-majority Bangladesh.
New Delhi fears that Hasina’s removal from power has created space for groups hostile to India, amid growing anti-India rhetoric and violence in Bangladesh, experts say Politics of South Asia. Attacks on minorities – including Bangladesh’s Hindu population – have increased tensions, they said.
Last year’s lynching and public burning of 25-year-old Hindu Dipu Chandra Das in Bangladesh sparked protests in India in New Delhi, Kolkata, Hyderabad and other cities, calling for protection of minorities and strong diplomatic action.
Those who follow Bangladesh they describe this period as a shift from a “golden era” of cooperation to one marked by suspicion, reduced engagement and diplomatic unrest.
What do the experts say?
But experts said the new government in Dhaka would provide an opportunity for both sides to stop the deterioration of relations and start afresh.
The outgoing caretaker government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was seen in India as less aligned with New Delhi’s strategic interests. Delhi has not engaged with Dhaka over the past 18 months, largely because India views the Yunus government as an unelected government, people who follow Bangladesh said.
“India has refrained from engaging with the Yunus government beyond what is absolutely necessary. A final vote would at least bring Delhi and Dhaka to the negotiating table and we will have to wait and see,” senior journalist and author Deep Haldar told LiveMint as the count was underway.
BNP best choice for India
“BNP coming to power is the best option for India. A Jamaat-led government would mean a new reality for both Bangladesh and India. BNP was in power. Delhi and Dhaka were engaged, though not on the best of terms,” said Haldar, who also works as a contributing editor at The Print.
Both sides recently showed intent to turn over a new leaf, other experts said, citing Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar’s visit to attend Khaleda Zia’s funeral, with PM Modi’s letter referring to a “fresh start”.
“This signals that New Delhi is willing to take small steps towards normalizing relations if the new government in Dhaka shares this intention,” Praveen Donthi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told LiveMint recently.
Checkered history of Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh
After independence in 1971, the founding leader of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, banned the Jamaat-e-Islami for opposing liberation. However, after Mujib’s assassination in 1975 and subsequent political shifts under military ruler Ziaur Rahman, Tarique’s father, the Jamaat gradually re-engaged in politics.
In the 1990s, Jamaat re-established itself as a recognized political party. In the following years, the Jamaat became a key ally of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which was led by Khaleda Zia, Tarique’s mother. In the 2001 general elections, the BNP-Jamaat alliance won power. Jamaat secured 17 parliamentary seats and held ministerial portfolios for the first time in the history of Bangladesh.
Several top Jamaat leaders were convicted and executed during Hasina’s regime after 2009. The party was barred from contesting elections, although leaders sometimes ran as independents or as part of alliances.
Jamaat has regained political space in the past 18 months under the Yunus-led dispensation. Restrictions were eased and it eventually merged with newer political formations and student groups to contest the February 12 polls. Shafiqur Rahman was elected ameer, or chief, of Jamaat-e-Islami in 2019.
“Pragmatic approach”
New Delhi pursues a pragmatic approach to its strategic and foreign policy, although it can sometimes take time to reorient itself, Donthi said. Whoever comes to power now, from Awami League is out of the reckoning, it will seek to restore relations with Dhaka, which in turn will seek to balance Beijing and Delhi, with possible spillovers to Islamabad, he says.
If BNP comes to power, it will be the best option for India.
India was Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, before Hasina’s fall, India sold $11.1 billion worth of goods, including textiles, tea, coffee, auto parts, electricity, agriculture, iron and steel and plastics.
“India and China will try to outdo each other in this race for influence and Bangladesh will try to make the most of it,” Donthi said, adding that it all depends on how both sides manage domestic political thrusts and pressures.
Key things
- A political shift in Bangladesh could lead to improved relations with India.
- BNP’s historical ties with India suggest the potential for strategic cooperation.
- Domestic political dynamics in Bangladesh will affect its foreign relations, especially with India and China.