As Iran and the United States return to the negotiating table over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, the geopolitical stakes have shifted. While Iran enters these discussions, which began on January 6, on a much weaker footing than in the past, US President Donald Trump comes emboldened by the recent success of the Venezuelan operation.
Mint explores the implications of these recalibrated performance dynamics for the future of the nuclear deal.
What are they talking about?
The topic is Iran’s nuclear program – specifically, the complete end of uranium enrichment in Tehran. The US wants too Iran will hand over 440 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium, which is estimated to be enough material to make 10 nuclear bombs.
Washington also wants to broaden the scope of negotiations to include Iran’s ballistic missile program, its support for armed groups in the region and “the treatment of its own people,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. Iran refused to do so and limited the talks to the nuclear issue only.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi represents Iran in Oman, while Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff represent the US.
What events form the background of the conversations?
Iran is considered the weakest in decades. It has seen major popular protests in recent weeks over the high cost of living. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s government used force to quell those protests, prompting Trump to post on X that aid was “on the way.” The number of reported civilian deaths varies between 6,100 and 30,000.
The diplomatic climate changed drastically in June 2025 when President Trump ordered targeted airstrikes against three of Iran’s most critical nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. While the full extent of the structural damage remains unknown, the strikes sent a clear message: The US is now willing to use force to break diplomatic deadlocks.
However, the most significant shift is the systematic dismantling of Iran’s regional influence. The US airstrikes coincided with Israel decimating Iranian-backed groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Even before that, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 deprived Tehran of its most important Arab ally.
What has the US done to increase pressure on Iran?
The U.S. military build-up in the Middle East consists of the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, three guided-missile destroyers, and an aircraft carrier air wing including squadrons of F/A-18E Super Hornet fighters, F-35C Lightning II fighters, and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets.
On February 6, the day of the meeting, Trump issued an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on countries that buy directly or indirectly from Iran.
Can Iran put pressure on the US and its allies?
Yes, it can – by closing the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway between Iran and Oman connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Citing data from commodity news platform Kpler, CNBC said about 13 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, about 31% of global seaborne oil flows. Any disruption would cause international oil prices to rise. Iran has also warned that it could attack US military bases in the region.
How are Iran-US tensions affecting India?
The growing tension between Iran and the US is disrupting the stability of the entire Middle East and affecting Indians not only in Iran but also in other countries. It has a direct impact on India’s energy security, as much of its oil imports come from countries in the Middle East, but not from Iran itself. For Indians, higher fuel prices automatically translate into higher inflation across all essential commodities. India also has an estimated 9-10 million expatriates in the Gulf region who send back valuable foreign remittances.
What are the chances of a successful negotiation?
Hard to say. The last time the US and Iran sat down for talks in 2025, the US hit Iran nuclear sites days before a new round of negotiations was due to take place. Around the same time, Israel killed many top Iranian military personnel.
A significant diplomatic gap also remains between the two sides. Tehran continues to reject any demand that it give up its enriched stockpile uranium or accept external limits on their enrichment activities, treating them as fundamental sovereign rights. Washington, for its part, wants Iran to give up its enriched uranium and stop suppressing protests.
There is also the issue of regime change. Israel wants to see the end of Khamenei’s rule, and may now be the time to act on it, with Iran at its weakest in decades.
Elizabeth Roche is Associate Professor at OP Jindal Global University.