Three major pre-election polls indicate the likely outcome of the Bangladeshi election. Two of these polls indicate a clear electoral dominance of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), while the third indicates a close fight between the BNP and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami.
The crucial polls scheduled for February 12 represent a key test for the two alliances led by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami after the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
Who is likely to win? Here’s what the pre-vote polls are saying:
1. EASD survey
A survey conducted by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) revealed that A BNP-led alliance could win around 208 seats (out of 300) in the Bangladeshi elections, the Dhaka Tribune reported.
Indicating that voters may prefer the BNP, the survey claimed that Bangladesh The Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance can secure 46 seats. Besides, the Jatiya Party is projected to win three seats, other parties four seats and independent candidates 17 seats, the report added.
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The results were based on the opinions of approximately 41,500 respondents – 26,560 men (64%) and 14,922 women (36%).
According to a local media report, a total of 66.3 percent of respondents expressed their intention to vote for the BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami came second with 11.9 percent support.
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The NCP received the support of 1.7 percent. Among others, the Jatiya Party secured 4 percent support, while independent candidates accounted for 2.6 percent.
The survey reportedly indicated that The BNP enjoys strong support among female voterswith 71.1 percent expressing support for the party.
It claimed that a significant section of voters who previously supported Hasina’s Awami League are now in favor of political change.
EASD Director General Shamim Hayder Talukdar was quoted by the Dhaka Tribune as saying that 80 percent of former Awami League voters expressed their intention to vote for the BNP in the upcoming elections – and 15% said they would support Jamaat-e-Islami.
2. IILD survey shows tight race
An opinion poll by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) revealed that while the BNP-led alliance was clearly ahead in terms of overall vote share, the Jamaat-led electoral alliance was leading in constituencies where victory seemed certain.
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According to a report in Prothomalo, the survey indicated that The Jamaat-led alliance could secure a definitive victory in 105 constituencieswhile The BNP-led alliance could be confident of victory with 101 seats.
Candidates from other parties can win in 19 constituencies.
The survey further claimed that The BNP-led alliance can get 44.1 percent of the votewhile the electoral alliance of 11 political parties led by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami could get 43.9 percent.
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The findings also indicated that there was a close fight between the candidates of the two alliances in 75 constituencies.
Allegedly, 63,115 voters from across the country took part in the survey. Of these, 36,634 were male, representing 57.59 percent of respondents, while 26,981 were female, representing 42.41 percent, Prothomalo said.
NRC poll
A survey by the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC) confirmed the BNP’s advantage and assumed that The BNP could secure 77 percent of the vote and win 220 seats.
Meantime, Jamaat-e-Islami was expected to win 57 seats, with the rest split between smaller parties and independents.
Bangladesh election in brief:
National elections in Bangladesh will be held on February 12 and the results will be announced on February 13.
Bangladesh’s Jatiya Sangsad, or parliament, has 350 elected members who, like its neighbor India, serve for five years. However, only 300 members are elected by the people for their respective constituencies.
The remaining 50 seats are reserved for women and are filled by a vote of 300 members based on proportional representation, the Indian Express explained.
A political party or coalition must win 151 of the total 300 seats (more than half) to form a government in the country. Members for the remaining 50 seats reserved for women are elected later.
This year the contest is between two alliances – one led by the BNP (currently led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s son Tarique Rahman).
Another is the link between Jamaat and the National Citizen Party (NCP), a group formed by student leaders of the 2024 uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina. Other Islamist parties are also part of the alliance.
The upcoming election has become a bipolar contest as Hasina’s Awami League has been banned from contesting Bangladesh’s national polls.
