US President Donald Trump on Thursday pushed for a new nuclear deal after the previous agreement with Russia expired, raising fears of a potential global arms race.
The Trump administration has consistently advocated including China in any new deal, given its expanding but still much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to Russia and the United States. However, Beijing has publicly resisted such proposals.
Trump has been largely silent on Russian calls to extend New START, the 2010 treaty that set the final limits on the two biggest nuclear powers after decades of Cold War deals.
What did Trump say?
Hours after it ended, Trump condemned it, saying the deal, signed by former President Barack Obama and extended by former President Joe Biden, was “badly negotiated” and “is being grossly violated.”
On his Truth Social account, he added: “We should let our nuclear experts work on a new, improved and modernized treaty that can last long into the future.”
Could China join a potential new treaty?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Trump had emphasized that “for real arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do anything that doesn’t involve China because of their huge and rapidly growing stockpile.”
During his first term, Trump tried and failed to negotiate a trilateral nuclear deal including China. Beijing has resisted any curbs on its smaller but expanding nuclear arsenal and has urged the US to restart nuclear talks with Russia.
“China’s nuclear forces are not at all on the same scale as those of the US and Russia, and therefore China will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said Thursday, according to the AP agency.
He added that China regrets the expiration of New START and called on the US to urgently resume nuclear dialogue with Russia, responding positively to Moscow’s proposal that both sides continue to abide by the treaty’s basic limits for the time being.
China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding faster than any other nation, adding roughly 100 new warheads a year from 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, according to AFP. The institute projects that China now possesses at least 600 nuclear warheads, still well short of the 800-warhead limit set for both Russia and the United States under New START.
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Russia reacts
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday about the expiration of the treaty, stressing that the US had not responded to his proposal to extend its limits. Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Putin noted that Russia “will act in a balanced and responsible manner based on a thorough analysis of the security situation.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow viewed Thursday’s expiration of the contract “negatively” and expressed regret. He added that Russia would pursue its “responsible, thorough approach to stability when it comes to nuclear weapons,” noting that “of course, it will be guided primarily by its national interests.” Peskov also emphasized that “if we receive constructive answers, we will certainly conduct a dialogue.”
Peskov reiterated on Thursday that Moscow respects Beijing’s position. He and other Russian officials have consistently argued that any effort to negotiate a broader nuclear deal beyond the US-Russia deal should also include the nuclear arsenals of NATO members France and the United Kingdom.
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What is New START?
New START, signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, limited each country to more than 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. The contract, which was originally due to expire in 2021, has been extended for another five years.
The agreement included extensive on-site inspections to ensure compliance, but these were suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and never resumed.
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Putin halted Moscow’s participation in February 2023, citing concerns about US inspections of Russian nuclear facilities amid what he described as Washington’s and NATO’s stated goal of defeating Russia in Ukraine. Despite the suspension, the Kremlin has stressed that it is not fully withdrawing from the treaty and will continue to adhere to the caps on its nuclear arsenal.
In September, Putin offered to maintain New START’s limits for one more year to allow time to negotiate a follow-up deal, warning that the treaty’s expiration could destabilize global security and encourage nuclear proliferation.
New START was the latest in a long line of arms control agreements between the US and Russia, beginning with SALT I in 1972, aimed at limiting their nuclear arsenals.
