Netanyahu faces backlash at home after Trump cuts him out of Iran talks: Here's what's in store for Israel's prime minister

As United States President Donald Trump signed the Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Versailles, France, attention has now turned to his ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to NBC News, the Israeli government was sidelined and not presented with a draft memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

The move is particularly significant for Netanyahu, whose government was excluded from the negotiations that led to the deal. Israel’s absence from the talks is now emerging as a major challenge for Netanyahu as he heads into what many say is a career-defining election before the end of October.

Read also | US-Iran peace deal: Trump signs MoU in Versailles, White House confirms

Why is the US-Iran deal bad for Israel and Netanyahu?

According to reports, when the US and Israel went to war in late February, both allies were optimistic that they could end the Tehran regime. The US president told Iranians that “the hour of your freedom is at hand” and called on them to “take over your government” when the time is right.

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Israel was excluded from the negotiations that led to the Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), raising concerns among Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, particularly as the deal could have an impact on Israel’s security.

Netanyahu’s position has weakened as he faces backlash for being sidelined in the US-Iran talks, which some say could have significant ramifications for him in the upcoming election.

Netanyahu expressed frustration with the deal and said he would continue to fight Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, despite the peace deal signaling a shift in US policy.

Criticism against Netanyahu by various Israeli political figures and polls indicate a decline in public support, with many seeing the deal as a failure of his foreign policy.

Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu has become strained, with the US president expressing frustration over Israeli military actions in Lebanon that threaten peace talks.

Although damaged by aerial bombardment, the Islamic Republic of Iran has not fallen and appears to be in no immediate danger of collapse.

The pushback from the talks and Washington’s decision to agree to an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, could prove frustrating for Netanyahu, who has pushed for war with Iran for years and popularized it in Israel, Al Jazeera reported. The Israeli prime minister has reportedly gone to great lengths to distance himself from what he called “Trump’s decision” to end the war, while previously claiming he was an equal partner in starting the war.

Read also | US-Iran news LIVE: US-Iran peace talks confirmed for Friday, Switzerland says

Additionally, if the final deal goes into effect within the stipulated time frame, Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister, could face repercussions at home during the election.

Daniel Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel and distinguished member of the Atlantic Council, told PBS News that Netanyahu is now in a precarious position and “All Hezbollah has to do is get one rocket into an Israeli city in northern Israel, and then the pressure on Netanyahu — which he’s already hearing from his own base and from the opposition … will intensify.”

Israeli attacks on Lebanonanger Trump

Netanyahu’s apparent sidelining comes as his relationship with Trump has soured. According to The Wall Street Journal, the frequent phone calls between the two leaders are now less friendly.

Citing sources, the report said that as Trump sought to broker a permanent end to his war with Iran, which has hit the US economy, he had choice words for the ally who urged him to do so.

During a recent phone call about Lebanon, Trump asked Netanyahu, “Why are you blowing up buildings?” and asked him to “stop blowing up buildings”. In another call, he reportedly complained that the global recession brought on by the war could tie him to Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Read also | ‘You may soon be on your own against Iran’: Trump’s warning to Netanyahu

It’s not the first time Trump has yelled at Netanyahu since the war began in late February, something he himself acknowledged earlier this month.

He said on Tuesday: “Without the US, there would be no Israel. Without me, there would be no Israel because no other president was willing to do what I did. I had a great relationship with Bibi. Now Bibi must be more responsible towards Lebanon.”

In the past few weeks, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Israeli prime minister because he felt Tel Aviv was threatening the deal. Earlier this month, the two leaders also downplayed the alleged rift, despite the Republican president admitting he shouted at Netanyahu, calling him a “mad king.”

Citing a senior U.S. official, the WSJ reported that calls between the two leaders typically resulted in the Israeli leader arguing for further military action, saying Trump had grown tired of it. The official added: “Bibi is telling the president why he needs to blow something up and why Israeli intelligence knows how to do it and when to do it, and the president is listening.”

Netanyahu is losing support

According to PBS News, Israelis across the political spectrum reacted angrily to the peace deal announcement on Monday, calling it a disaster for Tel Aviv and directing their fury at just one man: Netanyahu. While he reiterated at a press conference on Monday that “with a deal, no deal” he would continue to fight to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, critics, his rivals and even government officials criticized the decision on the interim deal.

Read also | Trump admonishes Netanyahu for casting “negative light” on his Iran peace deal

In an interview, former Israeli prime minister and Netanyahu rival Ehud Barak said: “Israel is paying the price for Netanyahu’s arrogance and blindness and the price of the manipulations he tried to pull on Trump,” adding: “Iran has emerged stronger, Israel has emerged weaker. That is Netanyahu’s strategic responsibility. He has failed.”

Yair Lapid, who will challenge Netanyahu in Israel’s upcoming parliamentary elections on June 14, said the deal, which would extend the truce between Washington and Tehran and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, looms as “one of the most shocking failures in Israeli foreign and security policy… entirely registered in Netanyahu’s name.”

But it’s not just Netanyahu’s political rivals who are attacking him; Israeli opinion polls paint a similar picture. NBC News, citing data from the Institute for National Security Studies, reported that in March, roughly 60% of Israelis approved of the war’s military successes so far. In May, that number dropped to 27%.

Israelis believe Netanyahu’s war a ‘failure’

Yossi Mekelberg, senior consultant for the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that Washington will dictate Tel Aviv’s role in the upcoming negotiations. He added that the country now awaits a debate on what it has achieved ahead of the upcoming election season.

He added that there was broad agreement across Israel’s political spectrum that the war had failed to achieve its goals. Not only was Israel excluded from the diplomatic process, he said, but it also failed to achieve any of Netanyahu’s key goals, including regime change in Iran, dismantling Tehran’s nuclear program, curbing its support for regional armed groups and significantly weakening its ballistic missile capabilities.

If the US-Iran deal culminates in a final deal, Netanyahu’s biggest political battle may no longer be in Iran, but at home.