The stage is set for the Karnataka Assembly polls, which could give the Congress a majority in the upper house

Chief Minister DK Shivakumar during mock polling ahead of the Legislative Council elections in Bidadi on Wednesday. | Photo credit: SUDHAKARA JAIN

On the eve of expected seven-seat Legislative Council elections that should give the Congress a majority in the Upper House for three years after it came to power, the parties huddled with their lawmakers on Wednesday focused on cementing the numbers.

Fake vote

While the Congress trained its legislators through mock voting at a resort near Bidadi, the Janata Dal (Secular) brought theirs to a resort near Nandi Hills and BJP legislators were trained at a hotel in the city.

Of the seven seats, the Congress and the BJP are expected to comfortably win four and two respectively, with the former tied in a tie with the JD(S) for the seventh seat, which pits Vinay Karthik against Govindaraj.

Distribution of votes

With a minimum of 28 votes expected for victory, the parties strategically divided the votes among their candidates. There are also precedents for parties to allocate one extra vote to a “safety” candidate in case any vote becomes invalid or lawmakers abstain or do not participate in the vote.

Voting is done by secret ballot, which also brings anxious moments to the parties. Second preference votes play a key role, making it an exercise in crunching numbers, especially when the race for one seat is tight and concerns about cross-voting have been raised.

The Congress, which has 37 members in the 75-member upper house, will get a majority, with victory assured in four seats. If he manages to win all five seats, his tally will be 39.

In the 224-member Lower House, the current strength is 222 following the disqualification of Vinay Kulkarni and the demise of former minister D. Sudhakar. The Congress has 135 members and has the support of two independents, one member of the Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha and two expelled members from the BJP – ST Somashekar and Shivaram Hebbar. The BJP has 63 members, including G. Janardhan Reddy, while the JD(S) has 18 members and is expecting the support of expelled BJP member Basanagouda R. Patil Yatnal.

Congress sources said the party conducted three rounds of mock polling in which Chief Minister DK Shivakumar also participated. Congress has over 30 first-time legislators. Several mock polls are conducted to prevent some votes from becoming invalid.

HDK strategic meeting

The JD(S) legislators were also in a strategy meeting with Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy and were coached by senior and former members with experience in the preferential election system.

Meanwhile, it is learned that though the JD(S) is seeking six votes from the BJP to be transferred to its candidate Govindraj, the BJP is yet to make up its mind. “The decision whether to keep 28 or 29 votes each for our candidate will be taken later,” BJP sources said.

How humbers accumulate

On the book, each candidate must receive 28 votes to win, although political calculations often differ.

Assuming Congress allocates 28 votes to each candidate, it will sweep all five candidates. However, for parties that differ in the number of invalid votes and cross-voting, each candidate is awarded at least one extra vote.

Assuming the Congress allocates 29 votes to the first four candidates, the party’s fifth candidate will fall short by four votes and end up with 24.

The JD(S) — assuming the BJP transfers six votes — along with the votes expected from G. Janardhan Reddy and expelled BJP member Basanagouda R. Patil Yatnal, will have 26, including 18 of its own.

Assuming the BJP allocates 29 votes to each of its two candidates, it will be able to transfer only four votes to the JD(S) candidate, reducing its tally to 24. Second preference votes remain important for both, unless cross-voting gives them the number.

“In such a scenario, the second preferences given in excess votes to the winning candidates will be considered for counting and the value derived from them will be added to the tally of the candidates. The value of the excess votes many times will allow the candidate to win. Even after counting, if the value does not exceed 28, then the elimination rule will be applied to eliminate the candidate with the least number of votes. If even these calculations can change which may bring invalid values, the calculations may change. dynamic and it will be known only during the census,” the government source explained.

Published – 18 Jun 2026 0:04 IST