India is the third largest producer of carbon at 3.2 billion tonnes per year (2024), led by the US (4.9 billion tonnes) and China (12 billion tonnes). | Photo credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto
While global carbon emissions are expected to rise by 38 billion tonnes, or 1.1%, in 2025, India’s emissions growth is expected to increase by 1.4%, according to the Global Carbon Project, an authoritative tracker of global fossil fuel emissions. This is less than in recent years – in 2024, India’s emissions rose by 4% from the previous year.
The slower growth was partly due to a favorable monsoon, which reduced demand for cooling, as well as “strong growth in renewable energy”, which led to lower coal consumption.
China’s emissions are expected to grow by 0.4% in 2025, also slower growth than in recent years. This was due to “moderate growth in energy consumption combined with extraordinary growth in renewable energy”.
Emissions in 2025 are projected to increase in the United States (+1.9%) and the European Union (0.4%).
Overall, India is the third largest producer of carbon at 3.2 billion tonnes per year (2024), led by the US (4.9 billion tonnes) and China (12 billion tonnes). In terms of per person, this is 2.2 tons of carbon dioxide per year, which is the second lowest value among the world’s 20 largest economies. Coal is the main type of fuel that contributes to India’s emissions.
The projected increase in global fossil CO2 emissions in 2025 is due to all fuels: coal +0.8%, oil +1%, natural gas +1.3%. In the period 2015–2024, emissions from permanent deforestation remained high at around 4 billion tons of CO2 per year, while permanent removals through reforestation and forest restoration offset about half of permanent emissions from deforestation.
Total CO2 emissions – the sum of fossil fuel emissions and emissions from land use change – have grown more slowly in the last decade (0.3% per year) compared to the previous decade (1.9% per year). The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted”. The remaining budget for 1.5°C is 170 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to four years at 2025 emissions levels.
“With CO2 emissions still rising, it is no longer possible to keep global warming below 1.5°C,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study. “The remaining 1.5°C carbon budget, 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be gone by 2030 at the current rate of emissions. We estimate that climate change is now reducing the combined land and ocean sinks – a clear signal to planet Earth that we need to significantly reduce emissions.”
The latest figures come even as world leaders meet in Belem, Brazil, to try to make progress on the transition away from fossil fuel use while negotiating how to pay the costs of boosting defenses against the effects of already ongoing human-caused climate change.
Published – 13 Nov 2025 20:54 IST
