Donald Trump is not on the cards today, but his presidency and policies are one of the key things people are voting on. As millions of Americans cast their ballots in gubernatorial and local elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York, President Donald Trump faces a pivotal moment.
The nation is now entering the 35th day of a government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history — as frustration mounts over stalled negotiations in Washington and uncertainty over the administration’s next move.
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The long standoff between President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders in Congress is set to become the longest government shutdown in American history this week.
Election Day on Tuesday, when voters head to the polls in Virginia, New Jersey and New York, will tie the record for the longest shutdown.
If the shutdown continues through Wednesday, which lawmakers believe is a near certainty, it will break the record set during Trump’s first term. This 35-day federal shutdown in late 2018 and early 2019 resulted from a fight over Trump’s demand for a border wall, which Democrats refused to fund.
Why is this election seen as a test for Trump?
A message is written in chalk on the ground on 36th Avenue on November 3, 2025 in the Astoria neighborhood of Queens, New York. On the eve of Election Day, Mamdani was joined by elected officials as he spoke during a volunteer canvass launch in Astoria. Mamdani, who is leading in the polls and the frontrunner in the mayoral race, is running against New York Independent mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo and GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa.
Tuesday’s election marks the first major public verdict on President Trump’s second term, with voters in key states heading to the polls amid a prolonged political stalemate that has left federal workers unpaid and critical services suspended.
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Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, along with New York City’s mayoral race and California’s redistricting initiative, offer the first signs of how Americans are responding to Trump’s leadership — and whether public discontent could translate into policy change.
“There are plenty of reasons not to read too much into these races,” analysts warn, noting that opposition voters often turn out in higher numbers during first cycles. The results will nevertheless serve as a barometer of political mood heading into key mid-term elections next year.
What does the shutdown mean for the Trump presidency?
The 35-day federal shutdown — sparked by Donald Trump’s spat with congressional Democrats over spending priorities — has already tied the record set during his first term in 2018-2019. If it extends another day, it will become the longest in US history.
The Trump administration remains defiant, with the president insisting the “pain for millions” will only end if Democrats step in. Speaking to 60 Minutes, Trump argued that the impasse was “a necessary exit for America’s future,” even as polls show growing discontent.
But critics describe the crisis as a self-inflicted blow, emblematic of a presidency defined by confrontation. As Trump “throws suspected cartel motorboats out of the oceans” and “sends troops into American cities,” observers note a growing pattern of overreach.
How are the Democrats doing?
People walk through the Brooklyn neighborhood on November 3, 2025 in New York City. New Yorkers are preparing to go to the polls tomorrow to vote for a new mayor to lead the nation’s largest city. The latest opinion polls show that Zohran Mamdani remains in first place.
Fueled by anger over the shutdown and the president’s polarizing rhetoric, Democrats are rallying voters around issues of affordability, health care and governance. In New Jersey, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot, directly linked her campaign to opposition to Trump.
“He’s going to do whatever Trump tells him, and I’m going to fight anybody to work for you,” Sherrill said during her debate with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, calling him a “Trump clone.”
Former President Barack Obama, who campaigned in support of Sherrill, delivered one of the party’s sharpest rebuke yet of Trump’s record.
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“There is absolutely no evidence that Republican policies have made life better for the people of New Jersey,” Obama said. “They have devoted enormous energy to entrenching themselves in power, punishing their enemies, enriching their friends, silencing their critics… But what they have not done is help you.”
Will Trump’s political wall hold in New Jersey and Virginia?
A sticker expressing displeasure with President Donald Trump on November 1, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. The Trump administration’s Operation Midway Blitz, an organized effort to round up and deport illegal immigrants in Chicago and surrounding suburbs, has been the target of frequent protests and growing opposition from state and local political leaders.
If Trump’s political wall begins to crumble, observers say the first cracks could appear in New Jersey, where Ciattarelli faces a difficult balance: energizing Trump’s base while appealing to moderate voters who are uneasy about the president’s style.
Ciattarelli defended his association with Trump on political grounds: “He’s right about border security; inflation is much lower than under Biden; he stopped offshore wind; he’s pushing back congestion pricing in New York; and he quadrupled the SALT deduction.”
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But analysts note that Ciattarelli’s path is more difficult than that of Glenn Youngkin, a Republican from Virginia who won four years ago during an anti-Democratic wave. “The cultural issues that helped get Youngkin to Richmond seem to have lacked the same resonance for Republicans this fall,” one expert noted.
What do experts think the results might reveal?
According to Kristoffer Shields, director of the Eagleton Center on American Governors at Rutgers University, local factors such as “utility rates and property taxes” are driving the race in New Jersey. But he added that the contest could provide a broader lesson about the national mood.
“New Jersey has probably moved to the right over the last couple of election cycles,” Shields said. “It’s going to be really interesting to see if that continues in this race or if the reaction to the Trump presidency pushes it back to the left.”
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For Democrats, Shields suggested, the challenge lies in unity: “The key question is whether a fractured Democratic Party can come together and actually increase voter turnout for a relatively moderate candidate.
On the Republican side, he added, the results could test the portability of Trump’s charisma. “There’s a sense that Trump Republicans are voting for Trump, but they don’t always show up when other Republicans come first.”
Could changing demographics change the outcome?
US President Donald Trump.
In 2024, Trump made measurable gains among black and Hispanic voters, fueling Republican hopes for a long-term realignment. The question now is whether this support will last even without Donald Trump himself on the list.
In New Jersey’s Passaic County — where Latinos make up about 43% of the population — Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly three points last year, after losing the same area by 16 points in 2020. But analysts warn enthusiasm may wane in his absence.
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A larger-than-expected decline among Republicans could signal the limits of Trump’s appeal, especially amid criticism of his immigration policies and a faltering economy.
what’s next
If the Democrats pull off a strong victory tonight, the results in the Oval Office could go haywire. Donald Trump has long surrounded himself with loyal followers who tell him what he wants to hear — “A cabinet of yes-men and yes-women,” as critics call it.
Still, it’s hard to resist the political waves. As one observer noted, “American politics never stands still, even for a president like Trump who tries to defy it.
If Trump weathers the storm with minimal casualties, he will once again demonstrate his remarkable political resilience. But if today’s election turns decisively against him, the message from voters will be unmistakable: The Trump era may be entering its most fragile phase yet.
