(Bloomberg)-American President Donald Trump and Chinese leader XI JinPing The latest Tit-for-Tat Settlement reached Standoff on Monday, both claiming that the ball was now in the second court.
After Trump signaled openness to conclude an agreement with Beijing, the US Vice President JD Vance said on Sunday that the result would “depend on how the Chinese react”. A few hours later, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made it clear that Beijing would make his allusions from the next steps in Washington after he had already released what she considered retaliation.
“If the US continues its incorrect course, China will firmly take the necessary measures to ensure its legitimate rights and interests,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Linan said on a regular briefing in Beijing. The Chinese authorities have not yet been retaliated for Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on their latest curb rare countries, while the fees were not formally registered in politics.
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Chinese markets showed resistance to riots. Benchmark CSI 300 for ONSHORE shares ending on Monday only by 0.5%, indicating that investors see renewed tension as strategic posture. Futures suggest that US stocks are also set to get some losses from Friday with selection after Trump softened its tone.
Analysts, including Nomura Holdings, said that the largest economies in the world had too much at stake to bring leaders’ meetings in South Korea this month. Finance Minister Scott Bessnt, who emphasized this point, said on Monday that he believes that the Trump-Xi meeting “will still be on”. Meanwhile, he was expecting meetings at the level of American and Chinese employees this week, along with the movements of Trump’s administration to mobilize American allies to put pressure on Beijing.
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Chinese officials said there may be “exceptions” for their extensive curbs of rare soils to facilitate trade.
The question is now which party is the first.
Although it is difficult to assess exactly who has more leverage, it is clear that the Chinese export sector can withstand around 50%, said Christopher Beddor, Deputy Research Director in China, Galkal Dragonomics.
“Beijing takes care of if the tariffs pass around 100%, but if this scenario does not take place, the tariffs are less priority,” he added. “The purpose of rare countries is to extract us concessions to control the exports of technological exports, but it is also not in the interest of both parties to completely derail negotiations.”
Business data on Monday has shown that China’s shipments abroad are growing at the fastest pace in six months, which dulls the impact of any increase in the US tariffs. Trump has other tools that cause pain: is already at risk of thwarting Beijing’s approach to jet parts and stop selling Chinese critical software.
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Negotiators from both sides are ready to meet in the coming weeks in Frankfurt for interviews aimed at expanding the 90 -day ceasefire, which will start at the beginning of November. These interviews are likely to put the basics of concessions to solve the latest outbreaks.
In the end, China believes it has the upper hand, said Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of international relations to Normal Universities in Eastern China in Shanghai.
“China is convinced that it is better placed than the US to absorb any shocks from the trade war,” he said. “Trump needs an agreement before shopping for a holiday and maybe before the rules of the Supreme Court against him,” he added, referring to the waiting decision on whether his tariffs were legal.
When the trade ceasefire between the US and China broke up in May after Washington took new steps against the Chinese National Champion Chip Huawei Technologies Co., Beijing deposited a blockade on its rare magnets to produce everything from mobile phones to missiles. Trump replied by getting rid of some export checks, which meant a seismic change in Washington.
If the US does not make similar concessions in this round, XI could re -stuck the flow of rare countries to the US by slowing down the license approval system at the beginning of this year. The disconnection of American curbs imposed for national security reasons would probably face the opposition from China Hawks in Washington, which – though not as significant as in the first period of Trump – is still trying to promote the harder line of Beijing.
The Republican leader adds to an incentive to speak on the track is under the pressure of farmers in key voting states to find the markets for us soybeans that Beijing does not buy. Meanwhile, the loss of the agreement previously agreed with the XI team to maintain the Chinese Tiktok online application in the US, would prevent its ability to connect with voters on the platform before Midterms 2026.
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The XI framework for the control of its rare countries-which also applies to consignments of foreign companies in overseas, according to the latest regular regular, which has held Washington for years on its top semiconductors. While China once condemned this tactics as “long -shouldered jurisdiction”, now it seems that the US is playing in its own game.
“Beijing could also include some of Trump’s negotiating tactics,” said Ting Lu, Chief of China of Nomura. This includes “extreme offers to open, use the lever effect and weaknesses of opponents and credible threats of walking.”
Wu Xinbo, Director of the Fudan University Center in Shanghai, said the US would have to reducing the steps that took between Trump and XI after the last month.
In recent weeks, the US has moved forward with a deadline for depositing US port fees on Chinese ships and eliminating surrender from the Biden era, allowing some of the world’s largest chips to maintain operation in China.
“If you want to continue at a summit meeting, you have to modify your regulations, your principles,” Wu said. “If not – okay. We don’t shine about the meeting with the top.”
– With the help of Philip Glamann, Fran Wang and Christopher Anstey.
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Responding to responsibility: This story has been published from the Agency’s wire feed without text modifications.
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