The United States economy is left in the dark after Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was forced to delay his monthly employment report due to the ongoing shutdown of the government. It was expected that the highly anticipated release, scheduled for October 3, would provide fresh findings on the labor market that show signs of tension, said The Washington Post.
Without reports, economists said that, according to The Washington Post, they “fly blind” in critical time. Erica Groshen, economist Cornell University, and the one who was led by the Labor Statistik during the 2013 shutdown, said the publication: “We fly blind directly because the economy could turn.”
Hiring has slowed down, unemployment increases, and private companies reported the steepest loss of jobs in more than two years. The federal reserve system, which relies strongly on the official data for determining interest rates, now faces an unusually uncertain way forward, added.
Also read: US government shutdown: jobs, travel, social security – what is influenced when Breaclock stretches
Why is the report of the work matters
Report on jobs is often referred to as “the most important piece of economic information”. The report summarizes the level of employment, wage growth and peace of participation for employment data. This information is decisive for Wall Street, politicians and everyday Americans to decide on interest rates affecting mortgages, loans and credit cards.
Maria Flynn, CEO of Jobs for the Future, and the former American Ministry of Labor, said the USA: “The fact that we do not have it now is a very big problem.”
What are the economists instead of
According to the USA Today, in the absence of government data, experts turn to private and real-time indicators. These indicators include:
ADP National Employment Report, which showed that private companies reduced 32,000 jobs in September.
Survey Challenger, Gray & Christmas, who said that hiring plans have been the weakest since 2009.
The Homebase Main Street Health report found that the participation of small businesses fell by 3.6%and the clock worked decreased by 4.7%.
Worktops such as Ziprecruiter, and LinkedIn offer real -time signals to hire activities.
Economists also use data on cargo and housing of railways, ports and groups such as the National Association of Real Estate Agency. These figures help fill the gap, but often lack the depth and consistency of government statistics.
Also read: US government shutdown: Thousands of White House workers could lose employment
The risk of flying blind
The length of the shutdown will determine its economic damage. The previous closures had limited effects, but economists warned that the current could turn out to be more disturbing, if it stretched, the Washington Post report said. He added that turning off permanent weeks of risks scare investors, increases unemployment and create long -term uncertainty.
Mark Hamrick from Bankrate told USA today that the missing October report is expected to show 50,000 jobs added with unemployment at 4.3%. However, without confirmation, politicians will be guessing.
For the federal reserve system that meets at the end of this month, the missing data creates the main challenge. The decision to further reduce interest rates will now consist on the patchwork of private data and incomplete signals.
Frequent
Q: Why was the employment report delayed?
The Labor Statistics Office held employees and suspended data collection for the government off.
Q: How long can the economy work without official data?
Short -term weaning may have a small effect, but economists say that longer delay could change the forecasts and confidence of investors.
Q: What data do economists use instead?
They turn to private sources such as ADP, Homebase and Work Plates, as well as data on cargo and housing market.
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