Waiting for the storm: India’s vulnerability to weather

Late last week, a mild pre-monsoon weather system swept into Uttar Pradesh, bringing a mix of thunderstorms, dust storms, lightning, heavy rain and thunderstorms to several districts at once. Till May 14, 111 people were killed and 72 injured in 26 districts, making the storm among the deadliest weather-related disasters in Uttar Pradesh in recent times. The state has experienced similar May-June weather events since 2018, if not earlier. The difference this year seems to have been in the intensity at which the wind was able to uproot trees. The storm appears to have been driven by a pre-monsoon convective system with fresh westerly disturbances over the northwest further destabilizing conditions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued thunderstorm and lightning warnings ahead of the event, and the Uttar Pradesh government reportedly issued more than 34 million red and orange warning messages through the SACHET portal. However, it is not clear whether these warnings were geographically accurate enough or reached their intended recipients in time – and in fact merely warned of impending severe weather or contained instructions for people to act on.

Advance preparation is really important for two reasons. The state is sometimes in a convergence zone as hot, dry winds from the Thar move east across the plains while moisture-laden winds from the Bay of Bengal push in from the southeast. Secondly, over the rolling Vindhya Hills in Mirzapur and Sonbhadra, converging air masses can rise rapidly and form thunderstorms over certain parts of the state. Indeed, although no body could predict the local intensity of storms, the underlying risk was hardly unpredictable. Their recurrence at this time of year and in this location should raise sharp questions as to why so many deaths continue to occur. Part of the answer is certainly the immediate causes of death and damage, including housing and public infrastructure. Uttar Pradesh has a large number of structurally vulnerable rural and peri-urban households. If the storm hits at dusk or later, people are often indoors or resting under flimsy roofs. In addition, people are also vulnerable to misplaced or poorly installed billboards, power lines and public signage. The state was aware of the kinds of damage such storms could cause when it announced separate aid packages depending on the type of farm, crop and loss. The underlying risk was predictable, but the vulnerability was high.

Published – 19 May 2026 0:10 AM IST