On Friday, a certain fate of European security and the trajectory of war in Ukraine could determine the fate of European security and trajectory of war and trajectory of war and trajectory of war in Ukraine on Friday. The exclusion of President Volodymyr will already hit a great wound of the West policy “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”.
Speculation has intensified at which territory Russian President Vladimir Putin can try – and which, if existed, could be willing to give up. News suggest that the proposal was quietly submitted to the American special envoy to Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow, including the Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for a ceasefire.
Is Nonetsk on Wednesday the latest design?
The regions of the Donetsk and Luhanski, collectively known as Donbas, have been the central point of Russian ambitions since 2014. According to the reported plan, Kyiv would admit the remaining territory in Donetsk still under Ukrainian control.
However, the recent development on Earth has complicated the image. In the past week of Russian forces, progress has made the northeast since the time, which has been concerned that the discussed areas are already moving. While Ukrainian officials described these movements as minor infiltrations, other local sources warn that months before the permanent Russian pressure revealed weaknesses along the queue. Strengthening since then has been sent to the region.
What about Kherson and Zeporizhzhia?
In addition to the Donbs, questions about the Russian intentions for Kerson and Zeporizhzhia – two regions partially occupied by the 2022 invasion.
Would Putin agree to withdraw from these areas Ukraine? There is no clear answer. For Kiev, the assignment of such a territory would mean the submission of important population centers and industrial nodes, which would effectively pass on Russia a stronger platform for future attacks. President Volodymyr Zelsky repeatedly warned that giving up the country would only seize Moscow and in 2014 quoted the annexation of Crimea as a precedent for other aggression.
Did Putin reduce his war targets?
Some observers interpreted Moscow as a sign that Putin could be willing to compromise. Yet the Kremlin’s attitude seems unchanged. The Russian Constitution now includes all four partially occupied Ukrainian regions – Nonetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizzhia – as part of their territory, underlining Moscow maximistic targets.
Even if Doněk was the only immediate demand, political and logistics consequences for Kyiv would be serious. Tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers would have to leave, many of whom could refuse. Performing such evacuation during active Russian progress would be almost impossible.
Could there be a territorial “swap”?
Theoretically, Moscow could offer in exchange to give up other occupied areas. But in practice, the possibilities are limited. Russian forces hold only small strips of soil along the northern border near the sum and Charkiv – areas that the Kremlin labels call the “bumper zones” from their recent, largely unsuccessful invasions.
Ukrainian officials note that these areas are the Ukrainian territory themselves and represent a negligible concession compared to the huge ground -grounding countries that Russia is trying to permanently connect.
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